An electric car future is speeding closer – economic analysts project that a third of all automobiles could be battery-powered by 2040. Most of these vehicles rely on large lithium batteries, which prompts worries about whether the world's lithium supply can keep up. However , another element, cobalt, is a bigger concern. The best lithium battery cathodes (negative electrodes) all contain cobalt, and its production is limited. Even with a very conservative estimate of 10 million electric vehicles (EVs) in 2025, the demand for cobalt that year could reach 330,000 metric tons, whereas the available supply at that time would be at most 290,000 metric tons. Recycling lithium batteries is complicated and rarely done. Even with higher rates and cheaper processes, recycling will not reduce the use of lithium batteries until 10 or more years after mass-market penetration of EVs. But newer cathode chemistries offer hope. Thanks to recently developed nickel-rich and cobalt-free formulations, cobalt demand may decline.