The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. On September 1, incumbent senator Ed Markey defeated U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III in a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination, and Kevin O'Connor defeated Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination. Markey went on to win the general election with 66.2% of the vote, and was thus re-elected to a second full term in a landslide.

Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...

2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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Nominee Ed Markey Kevin O'Connor Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,357,809 1,177,765 Percentage 66.15% 33.05%

County results Municipality results Precinct results Markey::      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% O'Connor:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Tie:      40–50%

U.S. senator before election Ed Markey Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Ed Markey Democratic

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The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.^[1] Incumbent senator Ed Markey was challenged by U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III, a member of the Kennedy family. Kennedy and Markey had similar political positions, both being considered reliably liberal Democrats, though Markey was considered more left-wing on the DW-Nominate scale.^[2] An elected senator had not been defeated in a primary since Richard Lugar in 2012, and an elected Democrat had not been defeated since Joe Lieberman in 2006.^[3]

In August 2019, it was reported that Kennedy was considering a primary challenge to Markey.^[4] He announced that he would be launching a campaign on September 18.^[5] According to Vox, one of the main reasons for Kennedy's decision to challenge Markey, rather than waiting for a Senate seat to open up, was that Markey was perceived to be an easier opponent than the raft of candidates that would run without an incumbent.^[6] Polling of the potential match-up showed Markey trailing Kennedy by as much as 14 points, leading to speculation that he would retire rather than face a humiliating primary defeat, but he resolved to run for re-election.^[7]

Kennedy faced skepticism about his reasons for running to replace Markey, and journalists observed that his campaign had difficulty articulating a clear rationale.^[8] Eventually, Kennedy's campaign pitch largely focused around a message that he would "show up" for disadvantaged residents of Massachusetts, something he claimed Markey had not been doing.^[9] This strategy was heavily inspired by Ayanna Pressley's successful campaign for the U.S. House the previous cycle, and was aimed at casting Kennedy as an insurgent outsider running against the establishment.^[9]

Facing a severe polling deficit, Markey undertook to politically reinvent himself; his relatively low profile in Massachusetts gave him the opportunity to essentially define himself for the first time to many voters.^[10] The main focus of Markey's re-election strategy was to promote himself as a left-wing iconoclast who clashed with the Democratic Party apparatus; to this extent a campaign ad from 1976 wherein Markey promoted his clashes with Massachusetts political bosses was widely used by his campaign.^[10] Markey also frequently promoted an endorsement he received from New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite of the Democratic Party's left; Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement encouraged left-wing activist organizations to also support Markey, and resulted in the incumbent developing a large following on the internet.^[10]

Support from within the Democratic Party was divided. Markey received support from the DSCC, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and DSCC chair Catherine Cortez Masto. He was also endorsed by key figures in the party's progressive wing, such as Ocasio-Cortez, fellow Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and the youth-led Sunrise Movement.^[11] Kennedy received various endorsements from the House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (which was noteworthy because speakers rarely endorse candidates in competitive primaries, especially challengers to incumbents),^[12][13] House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer,^[14] House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries,^[15] House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff,^[16] and House Democratic Senior Chief Deputy Whip John Lewis.^[17]

As the campaign progressed, Markey began to explicitly criticise the Kennedy family, deeming them as emblematic of privilege, and frequently contrasting the Kennedy Compound with his own upbringing in Malden.^[18] Kennedy attacked Markey for these actions, accusing him of "weaponizing" the history of the Kennedy family.^[19] As the race entered its final days the contest began to assume an ideological meaning, with New York writer Gabriel Debendetti writing that the contest was viewed as a "fight for the soul of the national Democratic party", with both candidates claiming that a victory for them would be an affirmation of the strength of the left-wing of the Democrats.^[20]

Polling

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

More information Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey, Source of poll aggregation ...

Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Date updated	Joe Kennedy III	Ed Markey	Undecided[lower-alpha 1]	Margin
RealClearPolitics	July 31 – August 27, 2020	August 27, 2020	40.8%	52.0%	7.2%	Markey +11.2

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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Ed Markey	Maura Healey	Shannon Liss-Riordan	Joe Kennedy III	Seth Moulton	Steve Pemberton	Allen Waters	Other	Undecided
Emerson College/WHDH	August 25–27, 2020	453 (LV)	± 4.6%	56%	–	–	44%	–	–	–	–	–
Data for Progress	August 24–25, 2020	731 (LV)	± 4%	50%	–	–	43%	–	–	–	–	7%
Suffolk University	August 23–25, 2020	500 (LV)	–	51%	–	–	41%	–	–	–	0%[lower-alpha 3]	8%
UMass Lowell	August 13–21, 2020	800 (LV)	± 4.1%	52%	–	–	40%	–	–	–	2%[lower-alpha 4]	6%
SurveyUSA/Priorities for Progress	August 12–16, 2020	558 (LV)	± 4.2%	44%	–	–	42%	–	–	–	–	15%
UMassAmherst/WCVB	July 31 – August 7, 2020	362 (LV)	± 7.0%	51%	–	–	36%	–	–	–	1%	12%
JMC Analytics and Polling	July 29–30, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	–	–	41%	–	–	–	–	16%
Emerson College	May 5–6, 2020	620 (LV)	± 3.9%	42%	–	–	58%	–	–	–	–	–
University of Massachusetts Lowell	April 27 – May 1, 2020	531 (LV)	± 7.8%	42%	–	–	44%	–	–	–	4%[lower-alpha 5]	10%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ	February 26–28, 2020	465 (LV)	± 4.4%	36%	–	–	42%	–	–	–	1%[lower-alpha 6]	21%
UMass Amherst/WCVB	February 18–24, 2020	400 (LV)	± 5.9%	43%	–	–	40%	–	–	–	4%	13%
UMass Lowell/YouGov	February 12–19, 2020	450 (LV)	± 6.1%	34%	–	–	35%	–	–	–	–	23%
	Jan 17, 2020	Liss-Riordan withdraws from the race
	Dec 16, 2019	Waters withdraws from the race
	Oct 14, 2019	Pemberton withdraws from the race
	Sep 21, 2019	Kennedy announces his candidacy
Suffolk University/Boston Globe	September 3–5, 2019	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	28%	–	–	42%	–	–	–	–	29%
				26%	–	<1%	35%	–	1%	0%	–	36%
Change Research	August 23–25, 2019	808 (RV)	± 3.5%	25%	–	5%	42%	–	7%	–	–	–
	Jul 23, 2019	Pemberton announces his candidacy
Suffolk University	June 5–9, 2019	370 (LV)	± 5.1%	44%	–	5%	–	–	5%	–	–	45%
	May 20, 2019	Liss-Riordan announces her candidacy[150]
	May 19, 2019	Healey announces that she will not run
	Apr 1, 2019	Waters announces his candidacy[151]
	Dec 14, 2018	Moulton announces that he will not run[152]
YouGov/UMass Amherst	November 7–14, 2018	635 (RV)	–	26%	27%	–	–	–	–	–	–	35%
		636 (RV)	–	29%	–	–	–	25%	–	–	–	38%
	Oct 5, 2018	Markey announces his candidacy
Suffolk University	September 13–17, 2018	433 (LV)	–	24%	–	–	–	18%	–	–	–	45%

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Results

Markey defeated his challenger, Joe Kennedy III. Markey won by running up big margins in Boston and its suburbs, and did well in western Massachusetts, especially in college towns. Kennedy did well in the Cape Cod region, and won many Southern municipalities, especially his native 4th district.^[153] Despite Kennedy's strength in Southern Massachusetts, Markey defeated Kennedy in portions of the 4th district near Boston, carrying Kennedy's hometown of Newton by 28.2% and neighboring Brookline by 39%. Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength among progressives and younger voters.^[154][21] Kennedy's loss marked the first time a member of the Kennedy family had lost an election in Massachusetts.^[155][156]

More information Party, Candidate ...

Democratic primary results^[157]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Ed Markey (incumbent)	782,694	55.35%
	Democratic	Joe Kennedy III	629,359	44.51%
	Democratic	Write-ins	1,935	0.14%
Total votes			1,413,988	100.00%

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The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.^[1]

The general election took place on November 3, 2020.^[1]

• 2020 Massachusetts general election

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