2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

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See also: 2020 United States Senate elections

The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the nationwide presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate.[2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.

Not to be confused with 2020 Alaska Senate election.

Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...

Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.[3] Some pundits considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well[4] in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls.[5] However, this lead did not materialize. Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%, triple his average lead in the pre-election polling. Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan
U.S. federal officials
Individuals

Primary results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Libertarian–Democratic–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[12]

Democratic candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified from the ballot

Withdrawn

  • David Darden (independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[8]

Alaskan Independence candidates

Nominee

  • John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[14]

Endorsements

Al Gross
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Union

Primary results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Other candidates

Green Party

Nominee

Independent

Declared

Withdrawn

  • David Matheny, wildfire technician[31][32]

General election

Issues

Pebble Mine

Before the election, the Trump administration considered granting a permit for the construction of Pebble Mine, a copper, gold, and molybdenum mine in Bristol Bay.[33] Gross and Sullivan were both critical of the mine by August 2020, citing environmental concerns.[34][35] In September 2020, recordings were released in which executives Tom Collier and Ron Thiessen stated that Alaska's senators, including Sullivan, would not take any concrete steps to oppose the mine despite their stated opposition.[36] Gross used the recordings to attack Sullivan, claiming that Sullivan actually supports Pebble Mine. In response, Sullivan clarified his opposition to the mine.[37] The mine was a major topic during the Senate debate on October 10. In the debate, Gross attacked Sullivan for being insufficiently opposed to the mine, while Sullivan defended his opposition.[38]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan (R)
U.S. Federal Officials
Organizations
Individuals
Labor unions
Newspapers
Al Gross (I)
U.S. senators
State executives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Unions

Polls

Graphical summary
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
with Forrest Dunbar
with Forrest Dunbar as an independent

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
More information By state house district, District ...

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. Gross ran as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party, and was listed on the ballot as the Democratic nominee.[1]
  2. Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  5. Includes "Refused"
  6. "Someone else" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  2. Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
  3. Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References

  1. [1]
    "Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat". Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
  2. [2]
    Taylor, Jessica (June 12, 2020). "Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
  3. [3]
    "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. Archived from the original on December 23, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
  4. [4]
    Burns, Katelyn (October 22, 2020). "Al Gross is hoping to ride Alaska's independent streak to the Senate". Vox. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  5. [5]
    Nat Herz [@Nat_Herz] (October 18, 2020). "New Alaska poll by Patinkin Research Strategies (not sure who paid but they are doing work for Yes on 2 in AK) has Al Gross up 47–46 and Trump up 49–46 Unclear how exactly they included 3rd party candidates, which may account for difference bw this+recent NYT poll. #AKleg #AKsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  6. [6]
    "SULLIVAN, DAN – Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  7. [7]
    McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020). "Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map". TheWell News. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  8. [8]
    "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  9. [9]
    "President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska". KTUU. December 18, 2019. Retrieved December 30, 2019.
  10. [10]
    "Mark Levin Audio Rewind – 10/20/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  11. [11]
    "Alaska Secretary of State's office: Election Summary Report – Official Results" (PDF).
  12. [12]
    Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
  13. [13]
    "Alaska – Senate". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  14. [14]
    "John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate". KTVF News. July 6, 2020.
  15. [15]
    "AK-Sen: Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr. Al Gross (I) Take Away Moscow Mitch's Majority". Daily Kos.
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    "Humanity Forward Candidate Endorsements". Humanity Forward. Archived from the original on June 28, 2020. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  17. [17]
    "Endorsed Candidates — 314actionfund". 314 Action. Archived from the original on April 4, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2019.
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    "Endorsed Candidates- 2019 Anchorage Municipal Elections". Archived from the original on September 19, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
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    Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019). "Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate". KTVA. Archived from the original on October 14, 2019. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  20. [20]
    "DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race". DSCC. December 3, 2019.
  21. [21]
    Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
  22. [22]
    "Al Gross (I, AK Sen)". J Street PAC. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  23. [23]
    "2020 Endorsements". Archived from the original on July 26, 2020. Retrieved July 26, 2020.
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    "AAOS Now October 2019: OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross, MD, for U.S. Senate". www.aaos.org.
  25. [25]
    "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Archived from the original on April 12, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2020.
  26. [26]
    "Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project". Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project. July 29, 2020.
  27. [27]
    "Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross (AK) for US Senate". Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
  28. [28]
    "Alaska". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  29. [29]
    "November 3, 2020 General Election Candidate List". www.elections.alaska.gov. October 29, 2020. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
  30. [30]
    Maguire, Sean (August 14, 2020). "Meet Alaska's candidates for the U.S. Senate ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries". KTUU. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
  31. [31]
    Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019). "Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  32. [32]
    "Identification Number: C00705293" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2019. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  33. [33]
    Ruskin, Liz (November 25, 2020). "Trump Administration Rejects Pebble Mine Project In Alaska". NPR. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  34. [34]
    Laine, Welch (June 30, 2020). "Alaska salmon: Bristol Bay opens with Pebble Mine decision pending". National Fisherman. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  35. [35]
    DeMarban, Alex (August 24, 2020). "Pebble mine would cause 'significant degradation' in Bristol Bay region and can't be permitted as proposed, Trump administration says". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  36. [36]
    DeMarban, Alex (September 22, 2020). "In recordings, Pebble executives discuss influence with Gov. Mike Dunleavy and one day expanding the mine". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  37. [37]
    DeMarban, Alex; Wieber, Aubrey (September 25, 2020). "Sen. Sullivan says 'No Pebble mine' following release of secretly recorded videos of company executives and criticism by Gross". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  38. [38]
    Wieber, Aubrey (October 11, 2020). "Sullivan and Gross battled it out on fisheries, Pebble Mine and Outside money in debut U.S. Senate debate". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  39. [39]
    "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  40. [40]
    Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
  41. [41]
    "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  42. [42]
    "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  43. [43]
    "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
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    "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  45. [45]
    "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
  46. [46]
    "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
  47. [47]
    "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  48. [48]
    Senator Murkowski: More Than Ever
  49. [49]
    Sweeney, Tara (October 25, 2020). "Sullivan has been a champion for rural Alaska". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
  50. [50]
    "PAEC Issues First Endorsements in 2020 General Election". Calista Corporation. Archived from the original on September 21, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2020.
  51. [51]
    "BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate". Bering Straits. August 18, 2020.
  52. [52]
    "U.S. Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate Representing Alaska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. July 20, 2020.
  53. [53]
    "Press Release: International Union of Operating Engineers Endorses Senator Dan Sullivan for Re-election – Dan Sullivan for Alaska". dansullivanforalaska.com. Archived from the original on August 9, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2020.
  54. [54]
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  55. [55]
    Buxton, Matt (August 12, 2020). "Before joining Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U.S. Senate". The Midnight Sun.
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    "Home – AL GROSS – FIGHTING TO FLIP ALASKA BLUE". Archived from the original on December 5, 2020. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
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    "Our Endorsements". DMFI PAC.
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    "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
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    "PACE Recommendations". NEA-Alaska. Archived from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
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    "Alaska Senate Election Results 2020". National Election Pool. NBC News. March 31, 2021. Retrieved January 23, 2022.

Further reading

Official campaign websites
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