April 13

The first indications for an organized severe weather event came on April 9, when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlined a risk area across much of the Ark-La-Tex region.^[3] The following day, a broader region for severe thunderstorms was introduced, with a heightened threat level across far eastern Texas into western Mississippi.^[4] A day 3 enhanced risk was outlined across those same regions on April 11, although SPC noted concerns about system timing and the availability of instability as numerous storms developed.^[5] As weather models came into broad consensus with regard to the potential for discrete supercell thunderstorms and a succeeding squall line, confidence in a significant severe weather outbreak increased, prompting the SPC to issue a day 2 moderate risk across far eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas, and far western Mississippi.^[6] The moderate risk was extended eastward on the morning of April 13, and SPC forecasters contemplated issuing a high risk for portions of the area. Ultimately, however, lingering concerns about the longevity of discrete storms precluded such an upgrade.^[7][8]

The synoptic scale setup was expected to come together as a vigorous upper-level trough pushed eastward across the Southwest United States into the Southern Plains, developing a closed 500mb low near the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex late on April 13. At the surface, a primary area of low pressure was forecast to develop near San Angelo, Texas, supporting a trailing cold front across central Texas as well as a lifting warm front across the Ark-La-Tex region. Within the warm sector of this low-pressure system, dew points were expected to rise into the upper-60s to near 70 °F, with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 in (38 mm) and generally low cloud bases. Steep lapse rates were forecast to contribute to mid-level Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values of 2,500–3,000 J/kg across eastern Texas, with slightly lower values of 1,000–2,000 J/kg over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. Intense speed and directional shear throughout the entirety of the atmosphere led to large, looping hodographs, and effective storm relative helicity values ranging from 250 to 600 J/kg along and south of the aforementioned warm front as depicted by forecast atmospheric soundings. The culmination of these ingredients was forecast to support an outbreak of supercell thunderstorms across the Moderate risk, with the potential for strong to violent (EF2+) tornadoes with the most sustained cells, followed by the development of an eastward-progressing squall line overnight. As the event itself unfolded, numerous supercell thunderstorms and embedded semi-discrete supercell structures overspread the threat area, resulting in numerous strong tornadoes.^[8]

April 14–15

On April 10, the SPC noted the potential for organized severe weather farther east across the United States, encompassing portions of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida in their day 5 threat area valid for April 14.^[4] Minimal changes were made in the next day's outlook,^[9] before the outlook was expanded northward into the Ohio Valley, including the introduction of an enhanced risk from central Alabama and Georgia into southern Ohio.^[10] Into April 14, as a line of severe thunderstorms shifted eastward across the Southern United States, this Enhanced risk was pushed north to encompass more of the Ohio Valley and portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. This included a large 5% risk area for tornadoes. There, cool morning temperatures were expected to give way to sufficient destabilization, characterized by mid-level CAPE values around 500–1,000 J/kg. Despite an intense low-level jet, dewpoints were only expected to rise into the upper 50s to near 60 °F, mitigating a more substantial tornado threat as severe thunderstorm clusters were forecast to congeal into a squall line overnight. While storm mode during the event was mostly linear, several supercell thunderstorms did develop, resulting in a few significant tornadoes. Numerous circulations and semi-discrete supercell structures embedded within the line of storms produced numerous weak tornadoes as well. Tornado activity continued throughout portions of the Northeastern United States into the early morning hours of April 15 before the outbreak came to an end.^[11] One tornado in the Northeast, an EF2 in Delaware, became the strongest tornado in the state since 2004.^[12]

April 13 event

April 14 event

April 15 event

Weches–Weeping Mary–Alto–Sacul, Texas

This long-tracked, high-end EF3 tornado touched down east-northeast of Crockett, Texas in Houston County at 1:00 p.m. CDT (1:00 UTC), downing numerous trees at EF1 intensity as it tracked to the northeast through the Davy Crockett National Forest. The tornado intensified to low-end EF3 strength as it passed near Weches, where a large swath of trees was flattened and an anchored double-wide manufactured home was thrown 150 yd (140 m) and obliterated, killing the occupant. Continuing into Cherokee County, the tornado maintained its strength as it closely followed SH 21 and struck the rural community of Weeping Mary, where approximately 20 homes and mobile homes were severely damaged or destroyed. The roof and exterior walls of the Caddo Mounds State Historic Site museum were destroyed while people were running inside for safety, resulting in several injuries and another fatality. Several well-built homes and a brick church sustained total roof and exterior wall loss in this area, trees were denuded and partially debarked, and vehicles were thrown up to 200 yd (180 m). Some outbuildings were damaged or destroyed as well. High-end EF3 damage occurred as the tornado then struck the town of Alto, where a two-story brick home was swept from its foundation, with the first floor completely destroyed and the second floor left partially intact and displaced downwind from the foundation. Metal power poles were bent in half, and several other homes and mobile homes in and around town were damaged or destroyed. Alto had already sustained damage from a separate EF2 tornado that struck the town earlier in the day.^[20][92]

The tornado exited Alto and continued to the northeast, where numerous trees were snapped, denuded, and partially debarked at low-end EF3 intensity. A home in this area had half of its second story torn off, and a second home was shifted off of its foundation and lost much of its roof. Damage to these two structures was rated EF2. Farther along the path, EF1 tree damage occurred as the tornado moved through sparsely populated wooded areas. The tornado then struck the small town of Sacul at EF1 strength, where trees and power poles were downed, headstones were shifted at a cemetery in town, and a flagpole was bent over. A frame home lost a large portion of its roof, and several trees were blown over onto the structure. Past Sacul, the tornado began moving nearly due-north as it approached and crossed into Rusk County. A final area of significant damage occurred near the county line east-southeast of Reklaw, where a well-built home had a large portion of its roof torn off at EF2 intensity. The tornado continued through southwestern Rusk County before it weakened and dissipated at 2:00 p.m. CDT (19:00 UTC), after downing additional trees at EF0 to EF1 intensity. Along the entirety of its path, this tornado snapped, debarked, or uprooted thousands of trees.^[20][92]

Remaining on the ground for 60 minutes, the tornado traveled 41.13 miles (66.19 km) and achieved a maximum path width of 880 yards (800 m), resulting in two deaths and at least 20 injuries.^[20]