Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Mexican_general_election

Opinion polling for the 2024 Mexican general election

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This is a list of public opinion polls relating to the 2024 Mexican general election. Polls have been carried out by various organizations and aggregated by the Americas Society – Council of the Americas, America Elige, Oraculus, and the College of Specialists in Public Opinion Polling and Surveys (CEDE).

By candidates

Precampaigning and intercampaigning periods

Polls taken during the precampaigning period (20 November 2023 to 18 January 2024) and the intercampaigning period (19 January to 29 February 2024).^[1]

More information Fieldwork date, Polling firm ...

Fieldwork date	Polling firm	Sample					Others/ Undecided	Lead
			Sheinbaum SHH	Gálvez FCM	Máynez MC	~~García~~ MC

27-28 February 2024	MetricsMX^[26]	1,200	61%	20%	4.4%	–	14.6%	41%
24-28 February 2024	Enkoll^[27]	814	53%	29%	3%	–	15%	24%
23-25 February 2024	El Financiero^[28]	1,000	50%	33%	8%	–	8%	17%
22 February 2024	Máynez officially registers his candidacy.
17-20 February 2024	Mitofsky	1,600	51.6%	27.8%	5.1%	–	15.5%	23.8%
20 February 2024	Gálvez officially registers her candidacy.
16-19 February 2024	LaEncuesta.mx^[29]	1,800	50.4%	40.9%	3.9%	–	4.8%	9.5%
15-19 February 2024	De las Heras Demotecnia	1,400	67%	15%	2%	–	16%	52%
18 February 2024	Sheinbaum officially registers her candidacy.
10-14 February 2024	Áltica^[30]	1,000	51%	35%	4%	–	10%	16%
3-5 February 2024	LaEncuesta.mx^[31]	1,800	50.8%	39.9%	4.2%	–	5.1%	10.9%
28-30 January 2024	Áltica^[32]	1,000	50%	35%	5%	–	9%	15%
19-22 January 2024	Enkoll^[33]	834	54%	27%	3%	–	16%	27%
12-15 January 2024	MEBA^[34]	1,500	68.1%	26.6%	5.3%	–	10.3%	41.5%
13-14 January 2024	TResearch^[35]	2,000	52%	27.1%	5%	–	15.3%	25.5%
13 January 2024	Rubrum^[36]	1,200	53.5%	28.9%	4.5%	–	13.1%	24.1%
10-14 January 2024	De las Heras Demotecnia^[37]	1,400	66%	14%	2%	–	18%	52%
10 January 2024	Máynez becomes the sole precandidate for MC.
9 January 2024	INE announces that no independent candidates collected enough signatures to be eligible.
18 December 2023	C&E Mexico^[38]	600	58%	33%	–	9%	–	25%
10–15 December 2023	Áltica^[32]	1,000	48%	36%	–	6%	7%	14%
7–10 December 2023	Mitofsky^[39]	1,600	50.2%	25.3%	–	6.3%	18.2%	24.9%
2–5 December 2023	De las Heras Demotecnia^[40]	1,400	65%	13%	–	6%	16%	52%
5 December 2023	C&E Mexico ^[41]	600	55%	36%	–	7%	1%	19%
2 December 2023	García withdraws his candidacy.
25–28 November 2023	Enkoll^[42]	800	49%	23%	–	17%	11%	26%
22–28 November 2023	Reforma^[43]	1,000	46%	25%	–	14%	15%	21%
24–25 November 2023	El Financiero^[44]	1,000	50%	31%	–	7%	12%	19%
20 November 2023	Gálvez becomes the sole precandidate for Fuerza y Corazón por Mexico.

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"Encuesta MetricsMX Presidencia 2024: Claudia Sheinbaum inicia periodo de campaña con una ventaja de 41 puntos porcentuales". sdpnoticias. 2024-03-01. Retrieved 2024-04-21.

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"PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-03-04.

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"Sheinbaum arranca campaña con 50% de preferencias; Xóchitl, con 33%". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-03-01. Retrieved 2024-04-21.

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"Encuesta - México Presidencial 5to Tracking". Áltica (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.

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Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated				Lead
			Sheinbaum SHH	Gálvez FCM	Máynez MC

Oraculus	through May 2024	6 May 2024	57%	35%	9%	22%
CEDE	through 23 April 2024	8 May 2024	59.6%	32.3%	8.1%	27.3%
Polls.mx	through 10 May 2024	11 May 2024	55%	31%	12%	24%
Bloomberg	through 5 May 2024	6 May 2024	59%	28.7%	12.3%	30.3%
Expansión Política	through 10 May 2024	11 May 2024	56.73%	32.3%	8.24%	24.44%
Average			57.5%	31.9%	9.9%	25.6%

Fieldwork date	Polling firm	Sample				Others/ Undecided	Lead
			Sheinbaum SHH	Gálvez FCM	Máynez MC

4-5 May 2024	TResearch^[2]	2,000	52.4%	29%	8.1%	10.5%	23.4%
2-5 May 2024	Áltica^[3]	2,500	50%	40%	7%	2%	10%
30 April 2024	C&E Mexico^[4]	600	55%	34%	11%	–	21%
29-30 April 2024	LaEncuesta.mx^[5]	1,800	48.9%	40.4%	6.9%	3.8%	8.5%
28 April 2024	Second presidential debate held.
27-28 April 2024	TResearch	2,000	53%	28.5%	7.3%	11.2%	24.5%
26 April 2024	MetricsMX^[6]	1,200	54.4%	21.3%	12.8%	11.5%	33.1%
17-24 April 2024	El Financiero^[7]	1,360	49%	32%	8%	11%	17%
20-21 April 2024	TResearch^[8]	2,000	53.8%	30.1%	4.4%	11.7%	23.7%
19-21 April 2024	MEBA^[9]	1,500	51.2%	24.6%	10.7%	13.5%	26.6%
14-16 April 2024	LaEncuesta.mx^[10]	1,800	49.7%	40.8%	6.3%	3.2%	8.9%
14 April 2024	C&E Mexico^[11]	600	59%	33%	8%	–	26%
13-14 April 2024	TResearch^[12]	2,000	54.3%	30.2%	4%	11.5%	24.1%
11-14 April 2024	GEA-ISA^[13]	1,070	49%	34%	6%	11%	15%
11-14 April 2024	Áltica^[14]	1,000	51%	39%	5%	5%	12%
8-14 April 2024	Enkoll^[15]	2,590	54%	30%	7%	9%	24%
10-13 April 2024	Mitofsky^[16]	1,600	51.4%	26.7%	9.3%	12.6%	24.7%
7 April 2024	First presidential debate held.
3-5 April 2024	LaEncuesta.mx^[17]	1,800	50.7%	40.9%	4.6%	3.8%	9.8%
1 April 2024	El Financiero^[18]	1,200	51%	34%	7%	8%	17%
28-31 March 2024	Áltica^[19]	1,000	50%	38%	6%	3%	12%
25 March 2024	MetricsMX^[20]	1,200	57.1%	23.7%	4.4%	14.8%	33.4%
22-24 March 2024	MEBA^[21]	1,500	53.5%	28.9%	6%	11.6%	24.6%
14-17 March 2024	De las Heras Demotecnia^[22]	1,400	63%	15%	2%	20%	48%
14-17 March 2024	Mitofsky^[23]	1,600	50.5%	28.8%	4.8%	15.9%	21.7%
12-14 March 2024	LaEncuesta.mx^[24]	1,800	49.4%	41.6%	5%	4%	7.8%
11-14 March 2024	Áltica^[25]	1,000	51%	37%	6%	6%	14%

Pollster	Date	Sample size	Margin of error	SHH	FCM	MC	Others/ Undecided	Lead
Pollster	Date	Sample size	Margin of error					Lead
C&E Mexico^[55]	18 December 2023	600	4%	59%	34%	7%	–	25%
CELAG	18 August 2023	2,000	2.19%	45.4%	18.2%	10.5%	25.9%	27.2%

Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Mexican_general_election

Opinion polling for the 2024 Mexican general election

Graphical Summary

Polling aggregations

By candidates

Campaigning period

Precampaigning and intercampaigning periods

Prior to the electoral period

Possible candidates

By alliances

References

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Fieldwork date	Polling firm	Sample					Others/ Undecided	Lead
			Sheinbaum SHH	Gálvez FCM	García MC	Verástegui Independent

19 November 2023	Sheinbaum becomes the sole precandidate for Sigamos Haciendo Historia.
17 November 2023	Garcia becomes the sole precandidate for MC.
10–13 November 2023	De las Heras Demotecnia^[45]	1,400	66%	14%	6%	2%	9%	52%
19–28 October 2023	El Financiero^[46]	1,620	46%	28%	8%	–	18%	18%
20–24 October 2023	Enkoll^[47]	1,008	50%	27%	15%	–	8%	23%
16 October 2023	MEBA^[48]	1,500	60.8%	26.7%	9.7%	2.8%	–	34.1%
8–12 October 2023	Polls MX^[49]	–	57%	33%	8%	–	–	24%
4 October 2023	Universal^[50]	1,200	50%	20%	7%	4%	–	30%
19–25 September 2023	Covarrubias y Asociados^[51]	1,500	58%	17%	6%	–	13%	41%
25 September 2023	De las Heras Demotecnia^[52]	1,200	68%	14%	4%	2%	12%	54%
16–21 September 2023	GEA-ISA^[53]	1,070	53%	34%	7%	2%	4%	19%
13 September 2023	Enkoll^[54]	1,205	55%	22%	6%	0%	17%	33%
6 September 2023	Sheinbaum wins the internal selection process of the MORENA-PT-PVEM alliance.
31 August 2023	Gálvez wins the internal selection process of Frente Amplio por México.

Fieldwork date	Polling firm											Others	Lead
		Sheinbaum Morena	Ebrard Morena	Colosio MC	Anaya PAN	Creel PAN	Tellez PAN	del Mazo PRI	Ruiz Massieu PRI	de la Madrid PRI	Noroña PT

June 2023	Mexico Elige	35.9%	–	8.4%	–	24.5%	–	–	7.9%	–	17.3%	2.1% Velasco, 2.1% De Hoyos	11.4%
June 2023	Mexico Elige	–	35.9%	–	–	–	19.5%	–	–	16.4%	22.1%	1.8% Velasco, 1.3% Mancera, 1.8% De Hoyos, 1.3% Delgado	16.4%
February 2023	El Financiero	45%	–	9%	18%	–	–	14%	–	–	–	N/A	27%
October 2022	El Financiero	44%	–	9%	18%	–	–	13%	–	–	–	N/A	26%
August 2022	Reforma	34%	–	28%	16%	–	–	10%	–	–	–	N/A	6%
May 2022	Reforma	33%	–	26%	13%	–	–	7%	–	–	–	N/A	7%
December 2021	Reforma	31%	–	27%	16%	–	–	10%	–	–	–	N/A	11%