Opinion_polling_for_the_2014_Indian_general_election

Opinion polling for the 2014 Indian general election

Opinion polling for the 2014 Indian general election

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In the run up to the 2014 Indian general election, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2013 to April 2014. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.

Background

Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]

Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]

Post-poll surveys or Exit Polls, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.[3] According to a study, post-poll surveys in the past have consistently overestimated BJP seats.[4] However, in 2014, it was the opposite and most exit polls underestimated the number of seats to be won by BJP and allies.

Opinion polls

Seats

NDTV - Hansa Research seat predictions
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Votes

NDTV - Hansa Research vote share predictions
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Graphs

100
200
300
400
500
600
ABP News-Jan
CNN-IBN-Jan
Times Now-Feb
ABP News-Feb
CNN-IBN-Feb
NDTV-March
CNN-IBN-March
NDTV-April
  •   NDA
  •   UPA
  •   Others
50
100
150
200
250
300
ABP News-Jan
CNN-IBN-Jan
Times Now-Feb
ABP News-Feb
CNN-IBN-Feb
NDTV-March
CNN-IBN-March
NDTV-April
  •   NDA
  •   UPA
  •   Others

Statewise opinion polling

Andhra Pradesh (42)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Andhra Pradesh

  BJP +TDP Alliance - 18 seats
  YSR Congress - 9 seats
  TRS - 8 seats
  INC - 6 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Arunachal Pradesh (2)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Assam (14)

 
 
 

NDTV - Hansa Research March 2014 opinion poll for Assam

  INC - 12 seats
  BJP - 1 seats
  Others - 1 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Bihar (40)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Bihar

  BJP+LJP Alliance - 24 seats
  INC +RJD+NCP Alliance - 12 seats
  JD(U) - 4 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Chhattisgarh (11)

 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Chhattisgarh

  BJP - 8 seats
  INC - 3 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Goa (2)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Gujarat (26)

 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Gujarat

  BJP - 22 seats
  INC - 4 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Haryana (10)

 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Haryana

  BJP +HJC Alliance - 6 seats
  INC - 2 seats
  INLD - 2 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Himachal Pradesh (4)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Jammu and Kashmir (6)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Jharkhand (14)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Jharkhand

  BJP - 12 seats
  INC - 1 seats
  JMM - 1 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Karnataka (28)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Karnataka

  BJP - 12 seats
  INC - 14 seats
  JD(S) - 2 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Kerala (20)

 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Kerala

  LDF - 12 seats
  UDF - 8 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Madhya Pradesh (29)

 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Madhya Pradesh

  BJP - 26 seats
  INC - 3 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Maharashtra (48)

 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Maharashtra

  BJP +Shiv Sena Alliance - 37 seats
  INC +NCP Alliance - 9 seats
  Others - 2 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Manipur (2)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Meghalaya (2)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Mizoram (1)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Nagaland (1)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Odisha (21)

 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Odisha

  BJD - 13 seats
  BJP - 7 seats
  INC - 1 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Punjab (13)

 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Punjab

  BJP +SAD Alliance - 7 seats
  INC - 6 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Rajasthan (25)

 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Rajasthan

  BJP - 21 seats
  INC - 3 seats
  Others - 1 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Sikkim (1)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Tamil Nadu (39)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Tamil Nadu

  AIADMK - 22 seats
  DMK Alliance - 14 seats
  BJP Alliance - 3 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Tripura (2)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Uttar Pradesh (80)

 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Uttar Pradesh

  BJP - 74 seats
  INC - 1 seats
  BSP - 1 seats
  SP - 4 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Uttarakhand (5)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

West Bengal (42)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for West Bengal

  AITC - 30 seats
  Left Front - 8 seats
  INC - 4 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Union Territories

NCT of Delhi (7)

 
 

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Delhi

  BJP - 7 seats
  AAP - 0 seats
More information When conducted, Ref ...

Other Union Territories (6)

More information When conducted, Ref ...

Other findings

The eight largest metropolises in India are considered important because they constitute 31 seats, larger than some regions altogether. In the previous election, the INC-led UPA won 24 of these seats, but the UPA is trailing in these areas.[51] A NDTV opinion poll in Uttar Pradesh indicated that the BJP would win its largest share of seats in the region by winning 40 of the 80 seats. BSP would get 15 seats, SP would get 13 seats, INC-RLD will get 12 seats, amongst its losses will Ajit Singh. The poll also asked those in Gujarat if Modi should run from U.P., of which 67% responded negatively, while those in U.P. said by 62% that they would like to see him run from there.[52] A survey of first time voters suggested Modi was the most popular prime ministerial candidate and Mamata Banerjee was the most popular outside the BJP or INC.[53] Latest survey by CNN-IBN-Lokniti predicts the decline (by 5%) in popularity of Narendra Modi as PM candidate.[54]

Exit polls

More information When conducted, Ref ...
More information Publish Date, Ref ...

Controversy

Polling agencies have been criticised by some political parties, intellectuals and political scholars.[why?][65] One of the limitations in making predictions is the modelling the relationship between vote share and the number of seats.[66]

A controversy erupted when a lowly rated news channel News Express released footage of a sting operation named Operation Polly which alleged that a number of polling agencies were involved in malpractices such as juggling with the statistics and results. The sting was aimed to suggest that Polling agencies are fudging numbers. The allegation included global research Giants like Ipsos and CVoter, whose contract with the India Today group was suspended briefly.


References

  1. "Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls: My Experiences".
  2. "2014 Lok Sabha polls: Big losses to UPA, no gain for NDA, survey finds". The Times of India. 17 April 2013. Archived from the original on 20 April 2013. Retrieved 11 June 2013.
  3. This Content Has been removed from Internet And was seen AT "http://www.newsbullet.in/india/34-more/42023-upa-set-for-a-crushing-defeatsurvey Archived 8 June 2013 at the Wayback Machine". The Site which was earlier named as newsbullet.in has been changed to abplive.in with no previous content.
  4. "Poll tracker". CNN-IBN. 26 July 2013. Archived from the original on 28 July 2013. Retrieved 26 July 2013.
  5. "Survey Methodology". The Hindu. Chennai, India. 22 July 2013. Retrieved 25 July 2013.
  6. "Congress 102, BJP 162; UPA 117, NDA 186: C-Voter Poll". Outlook. Archived from the original on 16 October 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2013.
  7. "ABP News nationwide opinion poll: NDA clear winner with 226, UPA stuck at 101". Abpnews. Archived from the original on 29 January 2014. Retrieved 25 January 2013.
  8. "Modi-led NDA way ahead than UPA, to win 236 seats in LS polls 2014: ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll". Abp news. 22 February 2014. Archived from the original on 13 April 2014. Retrieved 22 February 2014.
  9. "Poll tracker: NDA to get 211–231, UPA distant second with 107–127". IBNLIVE. Archived from the original on 26 January 2014. Retrieved 24 January 2013.
  10. "Methodology of Lokniti-IBN Tracker Round II". Lokniti. Archived from the original on 29 January 2014. Retrieved 24 January 2013.
  11. "#WhoWillFormGovt: National Poll Projection – 1". Timesnow. Archived from the original on 22 February 2014. Retrieved 13 February 2013.
  12. "NDA close to halfway mark with 212–232, needs more allies". IBNLive. 7 March 2014. Archived from the original on 7 March 2014. Retrieved 7 March 2014.
  13. "The Final Word – India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 March 2014. Retrieved 14 March 2014.
  14. "Modi-powered NDA may get 234–246 seats, UPA 111–123". IBNLive. 4 April 2014. Archived from the original on 7 April 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014.
  15. "The Final Word – India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
  16. "The Final Word – India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
  17. The poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. 1 seat was given to others in Telangana. Moreover, BJP and TDP were taken to be a coalition
  18. "Andhra poll tracker: TDP to get 18–20 seats, YSRCP 1–2, Congress 3–4". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  19. The poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
  20. "Modi powered BJP breaches southern fortress". India Today. 20 April 2014. Retrieved 20 April 2014.
  21. The poll gave one seat to others.
  22. "Bihar tracker: BJP-LJP to bag 21–29, RJD-Cong-NCP 7–13, JDU 2–5 seats". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  23. "Gujarat poll tracker: BJP on a roll, to win 20–26 seats, Congress 0–4". CNN-IBN. 2 April 2014. Archived from the original on 5 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  24. "Karnataka tracker: Congress to win 12–18 seats, BJP 7–13, others 1–4". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  25. 3 seats given to others
  26. "Kerala poll tracker: UDF ahead with 11–17 seats, LDF 4–8". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 3 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  27. "MP poll tracker: Landslide for BJP with 24–28 seats, Congress 1–5". CNN-IBN. 2 April 2014. Archived from the original on 5 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  28. "BJP-Shiv Sena clear winner in Maharashtra: ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll". abplive.in/. ABP News. 28 March 2014. Retrieved 28 March 2014.
  29. "Maharashtra poll tracker: BJP-SS-RPI 24–30 seats, Congress-NCP 16–22". CNN-IBN. 2 April 2014. Archived from the original on 5 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  30. "Odisha tracker: Naveen's BJD to win 10–16 seats, BJP 3–7, Congress 0–4". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  31. "Rajasthan tracker: BJP to win 21–25 seats, Cong routed, may get 0–2". CNN-IBN. 3 April 2014. Archived from the original on 6 April 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014.
  32. "Tamil Nadu tracker: AIADMK 15–21 seats, DMK 10–16, BJP alliance 6–10". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
  33. "UP tracker: BJP may win 42–50 seats, SP 11–17, BSP 10–16, Cong-RLD 4–8". CNN-IBN. 3 April 2014. Archived from the original on 6 April 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014.
  34. "West Bengal tracker: TMC 23–29 seats, Left 7–13, Congress 4–7, BJP 0–1". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 3 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  35. "Delhi tracker: BJP takes lead, to win 3–4 seats, AAP 2–3, Congress 0–1". CNN-IBN. 3 April 2014. Archived from the original on 6 April 2014. Retrieved 3 April 2014.
  36. "Why India's Big Cities Are Important For Elections 2014". IndiaSpend. 21 February 2014. Retrieved 25 February 2014.
  37. "First time voters want Narendra Modi as PM, suggests India Today-CVoter Youth Survey". Indiatoday.intoday.in. 19 September 2013. Retrieved 25 December 2013.
  38. "Modi's popularity dips but NDA still leading: Survey". Times of India. 7 March 2014. Retrieved 7 March 2014.
  39. "Post-poll survey: Modi-led NDA may get 270–282 seats, UPA 92–102". IBNLive. 12 May 2014. Archived from the original on 15 May 2014. Retrieved 12 May 2014.
  40. Lok Sabha 2014 – Exit Poll Archived 15 May 2014 at the Wayback Machine Today's Chanakya
  41. "Lok Sabha Exit and Post Poll – Methodology". NDTV India. 14 May 2014. Retrieved 15 May 2014.
  42. Shashidhar, Karthik (30 August 2013). "Opinion".

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