2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Primary elections will take place on May 14, 2024.[1]

Quick Facts Party ...

Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (first elected in 2010) initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election, but announced in November 2023 that he will not seek a third full term in office.[2] Manchin has been West Virginia's only congressional Democrat since 2015 and the state's only Democratic statewide officeholder since 2021. However, Manchin has expressed interest in an independent bid should Don Blankenship become the Democratic nominee.[3]

Background

West Virginia voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each election from 1932 to 1996 except for 1956, 1972 and 1984. The last time West Virginia voted Republican in a presidential race by a single digit-margin was when George W. Bush won the state in 2000 by 6.3 percentage points; the state has gone to the Republican nominee by double digits in each election since, with Donald Trump overwhelmingly winning the state by about 40 points in both 2016 and 2020. Manchin had continued to see electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia,[4] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.

The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[5] Notable Republicans who have announced candidacies for the seat include U.S. Representative Alex Mooney[6] and Governor Jim Justice.[7]

Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018 (even amidst a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win over the seat even if the incumbent sought reelection.[8] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[9] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. The last time Republicans won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956. If Republicans win this seat as expected, it will be the first time since 1958 that both of West Virginia's US Senate seats are in Republican hands, and if they also win both U.S. House seats, it will mark the first time since 1923 that West Virginia’s congressional delegation is entirely Republican.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

  • Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator (considering independent bid, endorsed Elliott)[2][13]

Endorsements

Glenn Elliott
U.S. senators
Labor Unions
Zach Shrewsbury
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024, Candidate ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Justice
Federal officials
U.S. senators
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Alex Mooney
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Bryan McKinney with 2%; Zane Lawhorn with 1%
  3. Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  4. This poll asked about a scenario in which Manchin ran as an independent.
  5. Includes Some other candidate with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll commissioned by West Virginia MetroNews and The Health Plan
  2. Poll commissioned by WMOV.
  3. Poll commissioned by Jim Justice's campaign
  4. Poll commissioned by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  5. Poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates

References

  1. [1]
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  3. [3]
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