2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maryland

2024 United States Senate election in Maryland

2024 United States Senate election in Maryland

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Maryland will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maryland. The Democratic and Republican primary elections will be held on May 14, 2024.[1]

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

Quick Facts Party ...

Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Ben Cardin was reelected in 2018 with 64.9% of the vote. On May 1, 2023, he announced that he would not be seeking reelection to a fourth term in office.[2]

Background

See also: Political party strength in Maryland

At the federal and state level, Maryland is a deeply blue state and one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation, with Joe Biden carrying it by 33 points in the 2020 presidential election. Elections in Maryland are dominated by the Baltimore metropolitan area and the D.C. suburbs.[3] Democrats currently occupy both Senate seats, 7 out of 8 House seats, supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, and all statewide offices.

Republicans have not won Maryland's Class 1 seat since 1970.[4] Although the entry of former Maryland governor Larry Hogan is expected to make the race more competitive, the winner of the Democratic primary is favored to win in the general election given that Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state of Maryland since 1980.[5][6][7] Hogan has led in most polls as of April 2024, however.[8]

Democratic primary

Campaign

Ben Cardin in 2023

In the early months of 2023, Cardin's low fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers led to speculation that he would retire.[9][10] Several potential candidates, including Angela Alsobrooks and David Trone, began hiring campaign advisers in anticipation of Cardin's possible retirement,[11] which he announced on May 1, 2023, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.[12]

The following day, at-large Montgomery County Councilmember Will Jawando announced that he would run for Senate.[13] He was joined by Trone[14] and Alsobrooks[15] later in the week. Upon Trone's entry into the race, the Democratic primary quickly developed into a contest between money and endorsements,[16] with Alsobrooks receiving major endorsements from the Maryland Democratic establishment[17][18] and Trone self-financing his campaign with $23.3 million in personal loans,[19] which he claims protects him from political influence and would allow the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to focus its resources on more competitive races,[20][21] and suggesting that he could spend as much as $50 million on the race.[22] Despite Trone's ad blitz, independent polling has portrayed him as only the slight favorite in the Democratic primary.[23][24]

Angela Alsobrooks (left) and David Trone (right) in 2023

During the Democratic primary, Jawando and Trone have sought to present themselves as progressives and political outsiders, pointing to their careers and political records,[25][26] despite Trone's record in Congress being more aligned with its moderate members.[27] Alsobrooks, meanwhile, has emphasized "kitchen-table" issues such as community safety and health care in her campaign while also focusing on her political career.[28][29] Candidates are expected to campaign heavily in the Baltimore metropolitan area, which is seen as a key battleground in the Democratic primary.[30][31] Alsobrooks and Trone, who have been viewed by media outlets as the frontrunners in the race,[32][33] have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Alsobrooks' record as a prosecutor has been scrutinized by progressive-media outlet The Intercept,[34] while Trone has faced criticism for his campaign contributions toward Republican politicians through Total Wine & More[35][36] and for his accidental use of a racial slur during a congressional hearing.[37] On the campaign trail, Alsobrooks has criticized Trone for these contributions and for spending heavily in the race, while Trone has characterized Alsobrooks as a "career politician" with an insufficient record on reproductive rights, criticized her for not including any Latinos in her cabinet,[38] and suggested she would be influenced by the corporations that had donated to her campaign.[39]

Jawando dropped out of the race on October 20, 2023, and later endorsed Alsobrooks,[40] leaving a contest between Alsobrooks and Trone in the Democratic primary.[41][4] Alsobrooks was seen as the early frontrunner of the Democratic primary, but momentum quickly built up behind Trone's campaign as he self-funded his campaign and its nonstop media blitz, which has increased his name recognition and approval ratings in polling and overwhelmed the Alsobrooks campaign's resources.[42] The Democratic primary has been compared to the primary in Maryland's 2016 U.S. Senate election, in which Chris Van Hollen defeated Donna Edwards. [21] Upon former governor Larry Hogan's entry into the race, the Democratic primary largely transformed into a contest to determine which candidate had the best chance of defeating him, with candidates shifting from talking about their experience and leadership styles to talking about national issues—such as abortion, the U.S. Supreme Court, and Donald Trump—and criticizing Hogan's legislative record as governor.[43]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Angela Alsobrooks
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide elected officials
State cabinet officials
State legislators
County officials
Mayors
Other local officials
Party officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
David Trone
U.S. representatives
Statewide elected officials
State legislators
County officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Will Jawando (withdrawn)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Declined to endorse
U.S. senators
Party officials
Organizations

Debates and forums

Democratic candidates debating at the Montgomery County Women's Democratic Club forum, 2024

A straw poll was held during the Maryland Democratic Party's forum on the Eastern Shore, which was won by Alsobrooks, who received 125 votes to Trone's 98 votes and Dominguez's 15 votes.[138]

A televised debate between Alsobrooks and Trone hosted by WBAL-TV and WRC-TV was set to be held on April 23, 2024, but was cancelled after Trone refused to commit to the debate.[139] Both campaigns agreed to attend a different televised debate hosted by WBFF and WJLA-TV a few days later, which was held on April 19.[140][141]

More information No., Date ...

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary

Campaign

Larry Hogan (left) and Robin Ficker (right) in 2018

Several Republican candidates have filed to enter the race, with the most notable being former Maryland governor Larry Hogan.[152] Retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general John Teichert was long viewed as the frontrunner[153] until Hogan's surprise entry into the race hours before the candidate filing deadline,[5][154] which prompted Teichert to withdraw from the race on February 16 and endorse Hogan, leaving him with only token opposition remaining in the primary.[155] Hogan's candidacy could transform the general election into a test of his popularity, especially among Democrats, who outnumber registered Republicans 2-to-1 and were key to Hogan's successes in past elections.[156] The Republican primary results could provide an image of the allegiances of the Maryland Republican Party, whose base has grown frustrated with Hogan for opposing former President Donald Trump.[157][158]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Larry Hogan
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Organizations
John Teichert (withdrawn)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide elected officials
State cabinet officials
  • Mike Gill, former Maryland Secretary of Commerce (2015–2019; 2022–2023)[118]
State senators
State delegates

Debates and forums

More information No., Date ...

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Debates and forums

Osuchukwu attended the NARFE Maryland Federation forum on October 24, 2023.[142]

General election

Campaign

The issue of abortion is expected to be a major issue in the general election, with Maryland voters set to vote on enshrining reproductive rights into the state constitution alongside the Senate election. If Hogan wins the Republican nomination, Democrats are expected to scrutinize Hogan's legislative record—including his vetoes on legislation to require background checks on firearm sales, increase the minimum wage, provide paid family and medical leave, and expand abortion care—and seek to associate him with generic Republicans.[171][172][173][174] Maryland Governor Wes Moore is also expected to play a role in campaigning against Hogan.[175]

In April 2024, a coalition of the state's largest community activist groups and labor unions announced a campaign to dissuade voters from supporting Hogan in the general election.[8]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Angela Alsobrooks vs. Larry Hogan
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
David Trone vs. Larry Hogan
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Notes

  1. Revoked endorsement following election as chair of the Maryland Democratic Party
  2. National and Local 689
  3. National and Maryland chapters
  4. Locals 400, 722, and 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East
  5. Locals 24, 26, 307, and 1200
  6. Baltimore District Council, and Locals 333 and 953
  7. Mid-Atlantic, Philadelphia/Baltimore/Washington, and Appalachian district councils
  8. National and Local 100
  9. $41,771,000 of this total was self-funded by Trone.
  10. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  11. Marcellus Crews, Scottie Griffin, Robert Houton, and Joseph Perez with 2%, Michael Cobb and Andrew Wildman with 1%, and Bryan Frydenborg and Steven Seuferer with 0%
  12. Michael Cobb, Scottie Griffin, Marcellus Crews, and Joseph Perez with 2%; Brian Frydenborg, Andrew Wildman, and Robert Houton with 1%; Steven Seuferer with 0%
  13. Joseph Perez with 4%; Stephen Seuferer with 3%; Michael Cobb with 2% "All others (each with 1%)" with 5%
  14. "Someone else" with 4%, "Would not vote" with 1%
  15. $4,196,017 of this total was self-funded by Ficker
  16. $377 of this total was self-funded by Friend
  17. $4,713 of this total was self-funded by Myrick
  18. John Myrick with 3%, "Someone else" with 2%, and Lorie Friend and Laban Seyoum with 1%
  19. Lorie Friend with 2%, John Myrick with 1%, and Laban Seyoum with 0%
  20. John Myrick with 2%; Lorie Friend, Laban Seyoum, and John Teichert with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by The Baltimore Sun and WBFF
  2. Poll sponsored by Angela Alsobrooks' campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by The Baltimore Banner
  4. Poll sponsored by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland
  5. Poll sponsored by David Trone
  6. Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  7. Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits. David Trone has signed the group's term-limit pledge.
  8. Poll sponsored by Perry, White, Ross & Jacobson LLC
  9. Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Hogan.

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