2023_Valencian_regional_election

2023 Valencian regional election

2023 Valencian regional election

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The 2023 Valencian regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Quick Facts All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes 50 seats needed for a majority, Registered ...

The ruling "Botànic Agreement" of left-of-centre parties was re-elected in the 2019 election for a second term in office, albeit with a diminished majority of 52 to 47. Opinion polls held in the ensuing years saw a collapse of the vote for Citizens (Cs), particularly following the 2021 Madrilenian election, and its capitalization by both the People's Party (PP) and the far-right Vox party, to the point of putting at risk a new Botànic majority. The coalition government was further weakened by the resignation in June 2022 of Compromís figurehead Mónica Oltra as both cabinet member and deputy, following her being accused of negligence and concealment in an alleged case of sexual abuse of a minor under the protection of her ministry by her ex-husband. On the other hand, Puig's government was generally well-valued in opinion polls for its management of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy and the political situation in the Valencian Community, which during this period saw the organization of the Benidorm Fest, the signing of a collaboration agreement with the Volkswagen Group for the development of a battery gigafactory in Sagunt and Ford's decision to equip its plant in Almussafes with the manufacture of electric cars.[1][2][3]

Overview

Electoral system

The Corts Valencianes were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Valencian autonomous community, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[4] Voting for the Corts was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[5] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[6]

The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province did not exceed three times that of any other).[4][7]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency was entitled the following seats:[8]

More information Seats, Constituencies ...

Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 April 2019, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 28 April 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGV no later than 4 April 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[4][7][9]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[4]

By late 2021, speculation emerged on possible snap elections in Andalusia and Castile and León to be held at some point during the spring of 2022,[10] with it transpiring that President Ximo Puig was evaluating the opportunity of an early election in the Valencian Community to be held simultaneously with those.[11][12] However, Puig publicly and repeatedly rejected the idea of a snap election being held,[13] an opinion he reiterated following the announcement of an election in Castile and León for 13 February 2022,[14] and after the calling of the 2022 Andalusian election for 19 June.[15] On 25 December 2022, Puig confirmed the election would be held in May together with the scheduled local and regional elections.[16]

The Corts Valencianes were officially dissolved on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGV, setting the election date for 28 May and scheduling for the chamber to convene on 26 June.[8]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Corts at the time of dissolution.[17]

More information Groups, Parties ...

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[7][9]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Campaign

Election debates

More information Date, Organisers ...

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 April 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Results

Overall

More information Parties and alliances, Popular vote ...
More information Popular vote ...
More information Seats ...

Distribution by constituency

More information Constituency, PP ...

Aftermath

More information Ballot →, 13 July 2023 ...

Notes

  1. Jesús Salmerón, Cristina Gabarda, José Antonio Martínez and Sunsi Sanchis, former Cs legislators,[18] joined the PP in September 2021.[19]
  2. Vicente Fernández, former Cs legislator;[19] Rebeca Serna, former Vox legislator.[20]
  3. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  4. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  5. Vote+Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. "El PP guanya les eleccions i governaria la Generalitat i les tres capitals, segons el sondeig de GAD3". À Punt (in Catalan). 28 May 2023.
  2. "El PP gana, pero el Botànic resiste por la mínima". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
  3. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  4. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  5. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  6. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  7. "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  8. "Encuesta Comunidad Valenciana". El Mundo (in Spanish). 8 January 2022. Archived from the original on 8 January 2022. Retrieved 8 January 2022.
  9. "Estimación elecciones Comunidad Valenciana". GAD3 (in Spanish). 19 November 2021.
  10. "Gobernará Mazón". Terreta Radio (in Spanish). 14 September 2021.
  11. "Estimación resultados electorales. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 May 2020.
  12. "La izquierda toma ventaja". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2019.
Other
  1. "Ximo Puig destaca la contribución del Benidorm Fest en la reactivación económica". Alicante Plaza (in Spanish). Alicante. Europa Press. 30 January 2022. Retrieved 22 June 2022.
  2. Rodríguez, Elísabeth (27 May 2022). "Ximo Puig dice que la planta de Volkswagen es un "impulso determinante" al modelo productivo de Valencia" (in Spanish). Alicante: Europa Press. Retrieved 22 June 2022.
  3. Rodríguez, Elísabeth (22 June 2022). "Ximo Puig: "Hoy los valencianos han ganado"". Las Provincias (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 June 2022.
  4. Ley Orgánica 5/1982, de 1 de julio, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Valenciana (Organic Law 1) (in Spanish). 1 July 1982. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  5. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  6. Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  7. Ley 1/1987, de 31 de marzo, Electoral Valenciana (Law 2) (in Spanish). 31 March 1987. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  8. "Decreto 3/2023, de 3 de abril, del president de la Generalitat, de disolución de las Corts y de convocatoria de elecciones a estas" (PDF). Diari Oficial de la Generalitat Valenciana (in Spanish) (9568): 20450–20451. 4 April 2023. ISSN 0212-8195.
  9. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
  10. Dávila, Carlos (5 November 2021). "Persistente runrún electoral". El Día de Valladolid (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  11. Hernández, Marisol; Robero, Juanma (14 October 2021). "Puig y Moreno Bonilla se miran de reojo para adelantar las elecciones". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  12. Martín Beaumont, Antonio (8 November 2021). "Moncloa teme elecciones en Andalucía y Valencia". La Razón (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  13. "Puig: "En ningún caso habrá adelanto electoral y tampoco está en la agenda una renovación del Consell"" (in Spanish). Valencia: Europa Press. 15 November 2021. Retrieved 30 November 2021.
  14. "Puig rechaza un adelanto electoral y pone en valor la estabilidad del Botànic". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). Valencia. 26 December 2021. Retrieved 26 December 2021.
  15. Hortelano, M. (26 April 2022). "Puig cierra la puerta a un adelanto electoral como en Andalucía". Las Provincias (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 June 2022.
  16. Sampedro, Sergio (25 December 2022). "Ximo Puig confirma que la Comunidad Valenciana celebrará las elecciones autonómicas en mayo". El Español (in Spanish). Retrieved 7 February 2023.
  17. "Grupos parlamentarios". Corts Valencianes (in Spanish). Retrieved 11 October 2019.
  18. "Cuatro tránsfugas de Cs en las Cortes Valencianas se pasan al PP en vísperas de la Convención de Casado". El Español (in Spanish). 29 September 2021. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  19. "La diputada Rebeca Serna deja Vox y pasa al grupo de no adscritos". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 23 August 2021. Retrieved 23 August 2021.
  20. Enguix, Salvador (3 September 2021). "Ximo Puig afronta sin oposición su reelección como líder del PSPV". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 23 September 2021.
  21. Enguix, Salvador (3 July 2021). "Carlos Mazón elegido por unanimidad de los populares valencianos como nuevo líder". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 3 July 2021.
  22. "Ruth Merino, nueva síndica de Ciudadanos en Les Corts tras la marcha de Toni Cantó". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). Valencia. 26 March 2021. Retrieved 1 January 2022.
  23. Gozalbo, Marta; Crespo, Rosana (8 February 2023). "Mamen Peris, candidata a la Generalitat y líder de Cs en la Comunitat al ser la única aspirante". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 19 March 2023.
  24. Enguix, Salvador; Sanjuán, Héctor (21 June 2022). "Mónica Oltra dimite de sus cargos institucionales tras la imputación del TSJ valenciano". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 21 June 2022.
  25. Gozalbo, Marta (29 September 2022). "Joan Baldoví, candidato de Compromís a la Generalitat en 2023". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 29 September 2022.
  26. Martínez, Laura (13 February 2023). "Baldoví se consolida como referente de Compromís: obtiene el mismo respaldo que Oltra en las primarias a la Generalitat". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 May 2023.
  27. Romero, Víctor (22 December 2022). "Vox elige al catedrático Carlos Flores como candidato a la Generalitat Valenciana". El Confidencial (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
  28. Hernandis, Miquel (27 August 2021). "Dalmau anuncia por sorpresa su voluntad de dejar la vicepresidencia de la Generalitat Valenciana". El Español (in Spanish). Alicante. Retrieved 30 March 2022.
  29. "Héctor Illueca, ratificado como candidato de Podem a la Generalitat Valenciana". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). Valencia. Europa Press. 4 November 2022. Retrieved 7 November 2022.
  30. "La SER organiza el primer debate de la campaña electoral en la Comunitat Valenciana" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 3 May 2023. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
  31. "Los debates de la campaña valenciana: Puig solo irá al de la Cadena SER y al de À Punt". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 24 April 2023. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
  32. "Eleccions a les Corts Valencianes (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 July 2019.
  33. Vazquez, Cristina; Bono, Ferran (13 July 2023). "Carlos Mazón es elegido presidente de la Generalitat Valenciana con el apoyo de Vox". El País (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 4 August 2023.

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