Policy

These elections were to be the first under the new voter identification laws. This meant voters would be required to show photo identification when attending a polling station. These new laws were controversial^[7] and led to accusations of voter suppression.^[10][11] There were concerns that turnout would be extremely low at the elections due to a combination of lack of ID held by some voters, and many members of the public remaining unaware of the new requirements.^[12][13] The police had been alerted to the possibility of anger and confrontation over these new rules, and polling station staff had been trained to de-escalate situations.^[14]

Since late 2021, the cost of living crisis had been growing, leading to government support for help with bills.

Changes to waste collection and recycling had been delayed by the Government until after the elections.^[15]

Narrative

A majority of the seats up for election were last elected in 2019. At those elections, the Conservative Party lost over a thousand seats and control of several councils while the Liberal Democrats managed to make the most gains at their expense. The Labour Party also lost seats and control of some councils at the 2019 local elections.^[16] In terms of seat numbers, this day of local elections was the biggest since 2019.^[17] Many wards had new boundaries.^[18]

The year up to the 2023 elections included the political crisis leading to Boris Johnson's resignation, the market turbulence caused by the "mini-budget", and the subsequent credibility crisis leading to Liz Truss' resignation and Rishi Sunak's appointment.

The cost of living crisis and a surge in inflation were significant contributing factors to several strikes in the public sector, with high-profile strikes in the transport sector and the health service. There were also extensive strikes in the postal services, education sector and amongst the civil service. In mid-February 2023, Conservative member of the House of Lords, Lord Hayward, said that the strikes had popular support and were therefore damaging the government and party's chances in the local elections. He argued the strikes needed to stop in order to improve their chances.^[19]

The Liberal Democrats had been utilising comments from senior Conservative MPs as part of their advertising in the so-called "blue wall" to draw attention to their undesirable and "toxic" opinions, such as support for the death penalty.^[20]

The Labour Party had stated to the press that they want to use these local elections to prepare for the next general election.^[16]

The Green Party stood 3,331 candidates, 41% of all seats that were up for election, the most they had ever contested.^[21] Over half of the party's 536 total local council seats were to be defended at these elections.^[22] The Greens launched their national local elections campaign in Stowmarket, Mid Suffolk, where they were aiming to win majority control, which would be the first time the Greens had won a majority on any council.^[23] The Greens were said to have been aiming to win at least 100 new seats, with their appeal spreading to both left and right-wing voters due to dissatisfaction with the main two parties.^[24]

Predictions

The Conservatives had been performing poorly in national polls leading up to these elections. They had been more than 20 points behind the Labour party in national opinion polling, though the gap had been narrowing.^[25] Conservative party chair Greg Hands MP publicly recognised that this election would be difficult for the party and referred to analysis that suggested they would lose more than 1,000 seats.^[26][27] This estimate was based on comments by British academics Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, who said current polling would put conservative seat losses at around 1,000, while Labour would gain around 700 seats.^[28][29] President of the British Polling Council Sir John Curtice had described the electorate as "increasingly sophisticated" in using tactical voting to defeat the Conservative party candidates.^[29] For this reason Sir John Curtice said the Conservative party could actually end up losing well over 1,000 seats if the tactical voting is a big factor, which director of polling company Savanta, Chris Hopkins, agreed with.^[29] A website was created to inform voters how to vote to have the best chance to unseat the Conservatives in their local area, and it received publicity thanks to endorsements from several public figures.^[30]

Labour NEC member Luke Akehurst stated that he expected the party to make its best gains in seat numbers since 2012, when it gained 847 seats (next best being a net gain of 288 seats), but expected varied results in terms of council control.^[31]

Sky News reported that YouGov predictions were pointing towards Labour gains in the North and the Midlands.^[32][33] That same report showed that Conservative-controlled Swindon council looked set to switch control to Labour, and some other councils would move into Labour control from no overall control, or move to no overall control from Conservative.^[32] East Cambridgeshire was predicted to switch from Conservative control to Liberal Democrat.^[32] Sky News also reported that if the Conservatives only lost 500 seats they may feel "relatively unscathed"; if they lost 750 they could argue that Labour was not performing as well as the polls suggest, but over 1,000 seat losses would be "difficult to spin".^[34][35]

Impact of voter ID requirement

ITV News reported that tellers had told them between 10 and 25% of voters in Oxfordshire were unable to cast their ballots due to the new measures.^[59] The chair of the Electoral Commission was quoted as saying that "It appears that the government has designed a system which denies the prospect of sensible and co-ordinated information collection and makes it almost impossible to judge the true impact of the introduction of voter ID".^[59] The Guardian reported that some transgender electors were not being allowed to vote because their identity documents did not match their new name as recorded on the electoral roll.^[60] Disabled and clinically vulnerable voters were also turned away due to a requirement to remove face masks.^[60]

Conservative

These elections were the first local elections of the Premiership of Rishi Sunak, and saw the Conservatives lose over 1,000 councillor seats, with major gains achieved by Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens.^[67] Labour also overtook the Conservatives as holding the highest number of members elected to local government for the first time since 2002.^[68] The Conservatives did take two councils; Torbay Council in Devon,^[69] and Wyre Forest District Council in Worcestershire.^[70]

Labour

Labour saw a net gain of 537 councillors and 22 councils.^[71] Labour became the party with most members elected to local government for the first time since 2002.^[72] The only council that Labour lost was Slough Borough Council, where 16 Tory gains took the council into no overall control, the first time in 15 years.^[73][74] Labour also retained Leicester City Council but lost 22 seats to the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens.^[75]

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats saw considerable gains, gaining 407 councillors and winning control of 12 more councils.^[76] Gains were concentrated in the Blue wall.^[77]

Independents

Independents and residents associations were reported to have benefitted from voter disillusion.^[78][79] The Canvey Island Independent Party gained increased seats on Castle Point Borough Council, despite the Council remaining under no overall control.^[80] The Boston District Independents won a majority on Boston Borough Council.^[81] The Ashfield Independents increased their majority by two seats on the Ashfield District Council, taking a seat each off of the Tories and Labour, for a total seat count of 32.^[82]

Green Party

The Green Party gained over 240 councillors across England, and won majority control of Mid Suffolk District Council, the party's first ever council majority.^[83][84] Despite losing minority-control of Brighton and Hove City Council to Labour, the Greens became the largest party on seven other councils: East Hertfordshire District Council, Lewes District Council, Warwick, Babergh, East Suffolk, Forest of Dean and Folkestone & Hythe.^[85][86] 2023 saw the party's best ever results in a local election.^[87]

Other parties

Reform UK jointly nominated some of the winning Reform Derby candidates who won 6 seats on Derby City Council.^[88] but failed to make a breakthrough with its own candidates on any other councils, averaging 6% of the vote in the wards where it stood.^[89]

The UK Independence Party lost all six seats it was defending.^[90] The Daily Telegraph reported that UKIP voters had flocked to Labour and independents.^[91]

The Liberal Party won four seats bringing their total to five.^[92] The Yorkshire Party won three seats in the East Riding of Yorkshire.^[93] The Social Democratic Party won a second seat on Leeds City Council.^[94]

Whole council

Third of council

By-elections or uncontested wards can cause the seats up for election to be above or below one third of the council.

Whole council

Third of council

Whole council

Third of council