2023_Sokoto_State_gubernatorial_election

2023 Sokoto State gubernatorial election

2023 Sokoto State gubernatorial election

2023 gubernatorial election in Sokoto State, Nigeria


The 2023 Sokoto State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Sokoto State, concurrent with elections to the Sokoto State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent PDP Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

Quick Facts Registered, Nominee ...

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former Secretary to the State Government Saidu Umar on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated former Deputy Governor Ahmad Aliyu on 26 May.[4][5]

Electoral system

The Governor of Sokoto State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Sokoto State is a large northwestern state with agricultural and energy potential but facing a debilitated health sector, low education rates, and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, religious riots, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state.

Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a swing back towards the PDP in the aftermath of Waziri Tambuwal's 2018 defection back to the party. Although Buhari won the state again, Sokoto was the state that swung the most towards the PDP in the presidential election; legislatively, the PDP held its one Senate seat after a court ruling and won four House of Representatives seats after the APC won all legislative seats in 2015. Statewise, Waziri Tambuwal won re-election by only about 300 votes while the APC won a narrow majority in the House of Assembly. During the term, APC dissenters worked with the PDP to form House of Assembly majority before eventually defecting and giving the PDP full control of the House.

Ahead of his term, Waziri Tambuwal's inauguration speech focused on education, healthcare, agriculture, water development, and transportation.[6] In terms of his performance, Waziri Tambuwal was commended for improving girl-child and technical education while being criticized for baselessly denying National Bureau of Statistics poverty data, rapidly returning to out-of-state campaigning days after May 2022 religious riots, and rising insecurity.[7][8][9]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][10] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Sokoto East Senatorial District to have the next governor as Sokoto East has not held the governorship since 2007. However, no major party has closed their nomination to non-Easterners as of yet.[11]

All Progressives Congress

The year prior to the APC primaries was beset by party infighting between three factions each supported by House of Representatives member Abdullahi Balarabe Salame, Minister Mohammed Maigari Dingyadi and former Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, or former Senator and potential gubernatorial candidate Abubakar Umar Gada which culminated in three parallel party congresses in October 2021.[12] The party crisis and legal battle over the congresses' legitimacy led no Sokoto APC chairman to be recognized in February 2022 alongside other state APC chairmen and for Sokoto delegates to be barred from the March APC National Convention.[13][14][15] It was not until seven months after the congresses that a party executive was inaugurated after a court ruled in favor of the Maigari Dingyadi-Magatakarda Wamakko faction in late March and the leadership was sworn in on 29 March.[16][17] The loss led House of Assembly Speaker Aminu Manya Achida (who had sided with Umar Gada's faction) to defect to the PDP; the protracted party crisis along with more potential defections have the potential to hurt the APC in the general election.[18]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[19] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[20] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[21][22][23][24]

In the days before the primary, disputes emerged over the delegate list as now-candidate Balarabe Salame accused three local government party organizations of selecting delegates without a congress.[25] On primary day, Balarabe Salame and former Senator Abubakar Umar Gada withdrew in protest of the process and three other candidates staged a walkout as several delegates claimed that unknown people were impersonating other delegates.[26] Voting continued into the morning of 27 May and ended in the nomination of Ahmad Aliyu—a former Deputy Governor and the party's 2019 nominee—by a wide margin.[5] Aliyu called for party unity in his acceptance speech and thanked party national chairman Abdullahi Adamu.[27] However, about a month after the primary, the trio of Balarabe Salame, Yusuf Sulaiman, and Abubakar Abdullahi Gumbi defected to the PDP.[28] A few weeks later, former commissioner Idris Muhammad Gobir was announced as Aliyu's running mate.[29]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Abubakar Abdullahi Gumbi: retired civil servant (defected after the primary to the PDP)[5]
  • Abdullahi Ibrahim Gobir: Senator for Sokoto East (2011–present)[5]
  • Faruk Malami Yabo: Ambassador to Jordan (2021–present), 2019 APC gubernatorial candidate and deputy gubernatorial nominee, former Commissioner of Local Government and Community Development (2012–2015), and former Commissioner of Finance (2007–2012)[5]
  • Yusuf Sulaiman: former Minister of Transport (2011) and former Minister of Sports (2011) (defected after the primary to the PDP)[30][5]

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Ahmad Aliyu (93.10%)
  Other candidates (6.90%)
More information Party, Candidate ...

People's Democratic Party

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[34] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[35][36]

On the primary date, every candidates except former Secretary to the State Government Saidu Umar withdrew from the race to support Umar's emergence as the consensus nominee.[37] The nomination of Umar via consensus was confirmed later that day, with Waziri Tambuwal claiming that it was a positive step for party unity along with announcing that withdrawn candidates like Manir Dan Iya and Sagir Bafarawa would receive other nominations in exchange for their withdrawals.[4] However, former candidate Muktar Shagari left the PDP in protest of the Umar's nomination.[38] By July, Dan Iya had obtained the Sokoto North PDP senatorial nomination while Umar had picked Bafarawa as his running mate.

Nominated

  • Saidu Umar: former Secretary to the State Government (2019–2022) and former Commissioner of Finance (2015–2019)[31][4]
    • Running mate—Sagir Bafarawa: former Commissioner of Environment (2019–2022) and son of former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa

Withdrew

Declined

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Minor parties

Campaign

Immediately after the primaries, pundits focused on the fallout from the elections and alleged imposition of nominees.[44] As the general election campaign began in mid-2022, observers noted the potential impact of divisions within the state and national PDP on Umar's campaign due to significant disputes between Tambuwal and other major PDP figures.[45] However, pundits also said most unsuccessful PDP gubernatorial aspirants had been successfully placated while the APC primary led to lingering resentment against former Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko—who was accused of imposing Aliyu as nominee.[46] On the other hand, analysis in September noted that there had been notable defections from both major parties along with a report that Deputy Governor and former PDP gubernatorial candidate Manir Dan Iya could join the APC.[47] After the start of the official campaign period in October, APC and PDP began public attack statements; it began with the APC accusing the PDP of threatening businessmen, traditional leaders, and religious Leaders to force them to support PDP candidates. In response, the PDP denied the accusations while stating that Wamakko had disrespected traditional leaders during his term as governor.[48]

In late November, analysis from The Nation mentioned the competitiveness of the race while reiterating the potential damage from divides within each major party. Observers also noted similarities between the APC and PDP tickets in terms of regional balance and godfather support.[49][50] Similarly, reporting from the Premium Times from the next month focused on Wamakko's influence on the state APC in opposition to his longtime rival Attahiru Bafarawa's influence on the state PDP.[51] Meanwhile, an election overview from the Daily Trust contended that Umar could be hurt by Tambuwal's position in the campaign of PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar. The January piece also cast doubts on the viability of other candidates like Aminu Ahmad Umar (LP) or Umaru Dahiru (NNPP).[52] Later that month, ThisDay reporting confirmed that the APC had not formally commenced its campaign or formed a campaign council with the election only a month away.[53] However, both major candidates were campaigning extensively; tension rose entering February due to a rise on political violence, including attacks on the convoys of both major candidates.[54]

Later in February, attention largely switched to the nearing presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Sokoto State narrowly voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won the state with 49.2% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu's 48.6%. Aside from the presidential result, the legislative elections were also very close and mainly inconcisive. These results led analysts to focus on the state's competitiveness.[55][56]

Projections

More information Source, Projection ...

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[59] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[60]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[lower-alpha 3] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[lower-alpha 4] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

More information Senatorial District, Ahmad Aliyu APC ...

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

More information Federal Constituency, Ahmad Aliyu APC ...

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

More information LGA, Ahmad Aliyu APC ...

See also

Notes

  1. AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  3. The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[61]
  4. The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[62]
  5. Comprising the local government areas of Gada, Goronyo, Gwadabawa, Illela, Isa, Rabah, Sabon Birni, and Wurno.
  6. Comprising the local government areas of Binji, Gudu, Kware, Silame, Sokoto North, Sokoto South, Tangaza, and Wamako.
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Bodinga, Dange Shuni, Kebbe, Shagari, Tambuwal, Tureta, and Yabo.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Binji and Silame.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Bodinga, Dange Shuni, and Tureta.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Gada and Goronyo.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Gwadabawa and Illela.
  12. Comprising the local government areas of Isa and Sabon Birni.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Kebbe and Tambuwal.
  14. Comprising the local government areas of Kware and Wamako.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Sokoto North and Sokoto South.
  16. Comprising the local government areas of Gudu and Tangaza.
  17. Comprising the local government areas of Rabah and Wurno.
  18. Comprising the local government areas of Shagari and Yabo.

References

  1. Oyekanmi, Rotimi (26 February 2022). "It's Official: 2023 Presidential, National Assembly Elections to Hold Feb 25". INEC News. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  2. Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  3. Salman, Animashaun. "Ex-SSG clinches PDP governorship ticket in Sokoto". The Punch. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  4. "NIGERIAN GOVERNORS: Fumbling, wobbling dominate June 2020 performance". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 21 May 2022. Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State made headlines in the month of June when he challenged the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rating of his state as one of the poorest in the country. Tambuwal disagreed with the statistical agency, asking for a proof and explanation of the indices used in arriving at their conclusion. We are tempted to describe Tambuwal's reaction as playing the ostrich. A more honourable response would have been to acknowledge the findings as a tool for strategic decision making. Indeed, it represents a mark of failure that he had not been able to improve on the ranking of Sokoto state after five years in office, and also refusing to take on the challenge that has been thrown at him.
  5. Suleiman, Adamu. "APC holds parallel Congresses in Sokoto". The Nation. Retrieved 15 April 2022.
  6. Auwal, Abubakar. "After Losing In APC, Sokoto Speaker Joins PDP". Daily Trust. Retrieved 15 April 2022.
  7. Angbulu, Stephen; Ayeni, Victor; Dada, Peter; Naku, Dennis; Ede, Raphael (21 April 2022). "Presidential primary: APC silent on zoning, Nigerians condemn N100m nomination fee". The Punch. Retrieved 21 April 2022.
  8. APC Nigeria [@OfficialAPCNg] (May 11, 2022). "NEW DATES" (Tweet). Retrieved 12 May 2022 via Twitter.
  9. APC Nigeria [@OfficialAPCNg] (May 18, 2022). "ADJUSTED TIMETABLE" (Tweet). Retrieved 21 May 2022 via Twitter.
  10. Folorunsho-Francis, Adebayo; Naku, Dennis; Charles, John; Muntari, Tukur; Wakaso, Aisha; Salman, Animashun. "Governorship primary: Tough battles in Oyo, Sokoto, Rivers' APC as 44,045 delegates elect candidates". The Punch. Retrieved 19 May 2022.
  11. Salman, Animashahun. "Three Sokoto APC governorship aspirants defect to PDP". The Punch. Retrieved 28 June 2022.
  12. Mohammed, Aminu. "Sokoto 2023: Revisiting 342 and its nemesis". Desert Herald. Retrieved 23 January 2022.
  13. Angbulu, Stephen (21 April 2022). "2023: PDP extends sale of forms for fourth time". The Punch. Retrieved 21 April 2022.
  14. Ukaibe, Chibuzo. "2023: PDP Fixes New Date For Gov'ship Primaries". Leadership. Retrieved 21 May 2022.
  15. Innocent, Onuminya. "Dan'Iya Joins Sokoto Gov Race". ThisDay. Retrieved 28 April 2022.
  16. Sabiu, Muhammad; Azeez, Biola; Shobayo, Isaac; Johnson, Babajide; Moruf, Olakunle; Abba, Mohammed (10 August 2022). "Governorship Race: Distrust, Betrayal Among Power Brokers". Nigerian Tribune. Retrieved 30 August 2022.
  17. Olugbemi, Adeniyi. "Still On Defection Politics In Sokoto". Leadership. Retrieved 12 September 2022.
  18. Alli, Yusuf; Alabelewe, Abdulgafar; Uja, Emmanuel; Ihyongo, Fanen; Joel, Duku; Suleiman, Adamu; Saidu, Khadijat; Okezie, Augustine; Sani, Sani Muhammad; Alao, Onimisi. "2023: Race to Government House (3)". The Nation. Retrieved 21 November 2022.
  19. Odufowokan, 'Dare. "2023: Defections, internal crisis threaten PDP in Sokoto". The Nation. Retrieved 26 November 2022.
  20. Ibrahim, Yusha'u A.; Auwal, Abubakar. "Hazy Contest For Sokoto Government House". Daily Trust. Retrieved 15 January 2023.
  21. Olugbemi, Adeniyi. "As Political Tension Grips The Caliphate". Leadership. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  22. Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Gubernatorial Elections: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 17 March 2023.
  23. Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.

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