2023_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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The 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democratic governor Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

This race was one of two Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2023 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. The other was held in Louisiana, which Jeff Landry flipped for the Republicans.

This was the first gubernational election in the state's history in which both major party candidates had previously held the position of Attorney General; Beshear held the position from 2016 to 2019, after which he was succeeded by Cameron.

Beshear's victory has been attributed to his broad popularity among Democrats and independents, as well as approximately half of Republicans in the state.[1] Compared to 2019, Beshear most improved his performance in suburban precincts; he increased his margins by nearly 6 percentage points in suburban areas, compared to 4.5 percentage points in urban and rural precincts.[2]

Background

A socially conservative southern state, Kentucky is considered safely Republican in federal elections, with Republicans holding both of its U.S. Senate seats and all but one of its U.S. House seats. In the 2020 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump carried Kentucky by 26 percentage points. However, the state was much more competitive as recently as the 1990s, when it voted for Bill Clinton twice, and Democrats remain competitive in many local and some state-level elections.

Beshear was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating incumbent Republican Matt Bevin, who had become widely unpopular for signing a pension reform bill for teachers and opposing a subsequent teachers' strike. In that same year, Cameron was elected Attorney General, becoming the first African-American to be elected to that position.

Cameron gained national recognition as Attorney General, especially due to his involvement in the Breonna Taylor case in 2020. He spoke at the 2020 Republican National Convention on August 25, 2020.[3] In September 2020, Cameron appeared on a shortlist of potential nominees to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court by President Trump.[4]

On May 16, 2023, Cameron won the Republican nomination with 47.7% of the vote, a 26% margin over the second-place candidate, and Beshear won the Democratic nomination with 91.3% of the vote over two perennial candidates.[5][6]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Fundraising

Beshear is the only candidate who has filed a financial disclosure.

More information Campaign finance reports as of January 3, 2023, Candidate ...

Results

Results by county:
  Beshear
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

  • Anthony Moore, wellwater drilling contractor[10]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Daniel Cameron
Executive Branch officials
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Kelly Craft
Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Mike Harmon
Organizations
Savannah Maddox (withdrawn)
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Ryan Quarles
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

Financial disclosures for major candidates are below:

More information Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2023, Candidate ...

Debates

More information No., Date ...

Polling

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Results by county:
  Cameron
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Quarles
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Craft
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Debates

More information No., Date ...

Endorsements

Andy Beshear (D)
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Organizations
Political parties
Daniel Cameron (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State senators
State representatives
Municipal officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
Andy Beshear vs. Kelly Craft
Andy Beshear vs. Mike Harmon
Andy Beshear vs. Ryan Quarles

Results

Beshear won reelection by a fairly comfortable five-point margin.[87] Key to his victory was his performance in the state's two most populous counties, Jefferson and Fayette (home to the cities of Louisville and Lexington, respectively), each of which he carried with more than 70% of the vote. Beshear also over-performed in several Republican-leaning suburban counties in Northern Kentucky and the Bluegrass region, and in several historically Democratic rural counties in the Eastern Coalfield which have swung sharply towards the Republican Party in the 21st century.[88] Beshear's gains in the Eastern Coalfield were attributed to his response to flooding in the region in 2022.[89][90]

More information Party, Candidate ...

By congressional district

Despite winning the election, Beshear won only two of the state's six congressional districts, including one represented by a Republican.[92]

More information District, Beshear ...

County results

Results by county

More information County, Andy Beshear ...


Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. Green nominee for Kentucky's 45th House district in 2012; Democratic candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014, 2016, and 2018, Republican candidate in 2020, and Democratic nominee in 2022; Democratic candidate for governor in 2015 and 2019
  2. Candidate for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in 2008, 2012, and 2016; candidate for Kentucky's 46th House district in 2010 and nominee in 2020; Republican nominee for Mayor of Louisville in 2014 and candidate in 2018
  3. $7,001,000 of this total was self-funded by Craft
  4. $52,500 of this total was self-funded by Deters
  5. $10,772 of this total was self-funded by Harmon
  6. $32,000 of this total was self-funded by Keck
  7. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. Ormerod with 0.5%
  9. Jacob Clark with 0.5%
  10. "Someone Else" with 2%
  11. "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Cameron's campaign
  2. Poll commissioned by Education Reform Now Advocacy
  3. Poll commissioned by the Bluegrass Freedom Action PAC
  4. Poll sponsored by Beshear's campaign
  5. Poll commissioned by the Club for Growth PAC
  6. Poll commissioned by the Club for Growth PAC
  7. Poll commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee
  8. Poll commissioned by the Prichard Committee for Academic Excellence

References

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