The 2023 Bauchi State gubernatorial election took place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Bauchi State, concurrent with elections to the Bauchi State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.^[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—was held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.^[3] Incumbent PDP Governor Bala Mohammed initially declined to run for re-election, instead running for president. However, after losing the PDP presidential primary in May 2022, Mohammed was renominated in a rerun primary. Mohammed was re-elected as governor by a 9% margin over first runner-up and APC nominee — former Chief of the Air Staff Sadique Abubakar.

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former Secretary to the State Government Ibrahim Kashim on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Abubakar on 26 May.^[4][5] However, Kashim withdrew from the nomination on 30 May after Mohammed lost the PDP presidential primary; on 4 June, Mohammed won a rerun primary unopposed.^[6][7] On 4 August, Senator Halliru Dauda Jika—who came second in the APC primary—won the primary of the smaller New Nigeria Peoples Party after he defected from the APC two months prior.^[8]

On 20 March, collation completed and INEC Returning Officer — Abdulkarim Sabo Mohammed — declared Mohammed as the winner. Official results show Mohammed winning over 525,000 votes and 51% of the vote as runner-up Abubakar received around 432,000 votes and 42% of the vote while Jika came third with 60,000 votes and 6% of the vote.^[9][10] However, Abubakar rejected the results and alleged widespread fraud.^[11]

The Governor of Bauchi State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Bauchi State is a large, diverse northeastern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, desertification, and a rising sexual violence epidemic.

Politically, the state's 2019 elections were a mixed bag for both major parties. In federal elections, Buhari held the state for the APC albeit with a reduced margin of victory while the APC swept all senate seats by winning back two seats it lost due to defections. Both major parties lost seats in House of Representatives elections to the benefit of the minor People's Redemption Party. On the state level, Mohammed unseated APC incumbent Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar by a narrow margin as the APC held the House of Assembly. During the terms, defections rose the APC's numbers in the federal House while increasing PDP numbers in the state assembly, solidifying Bauchi's politically competitive status.

Over the course of Mohammed's term, his administration stated focuses included education, forging a positive business environment, mineral resources, and agriculture development.^[12] In terms of his performance, Mohammed was praised for signing a bill to combat violence against women and following through on some campaign promises but was criticized for awarding inflated contracts to a company in which he is a director, buying the state PDP chairman a car with government money, a flawed COVID-19 response, continued corruption investigations from his time as FCT Minister, attacks on press freedoms, and his brief early 2021 spat with Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom which descended into ethnic gibes.^{[13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]}

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.^[2][21] In terms of zoning, some candidates and community leaders under the group Zauren Mutanen Bauchi have requested that the governorship be zoned to either the Bauchi North or Central senatorial districts as the last three Bauchi governors have come from the Southern district. However, no major party has yet closed their primaries to candidates from the South.^[22]

As the general election campaign began in June 2022, Mohammed began to attack Abubakar by accusing him and one of his wives—Sadiya Umar Farouq, the serving Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management & Social Development—of stealing public funds to finance his campaign. Abubakar and the APC looked elsewhere as the party dealt with the aftermath of several prominent defections with Senators Halliru Dauda Jika and Lawal Yahaya Gumau joining the NNPP; Jika became the NNPP gubernatorial nominee as well. Pundits identified numerous potential factors for the general election, namely: regional identity—Abubakar is from Bauchi North district which has produced no governors in over 20 years, Jika's candidacy, the power of Mohammed's incumbency, the defections from the APC, and "federal might" in favor of the APC.^[48] For each major contender, OrderPaper Nigeria noted strengths and weaknesses with Mohammed being helped by his administration's infrastructural development but hurt by nepotism allegations; Jika being aided by the pre-existing Kwankwasiyya NNPP structure in the state but hurt by regionalism and zoning favoring the northern district; and Abubakar being helped by his military service but hurt by his lack of political experience and APC infighting.^[49] By September, multiple reports had classified Jika as a major candidate while the Daily Trust focused on the difficulties incumbent Bauchi governors have faced in their re-election bids.^[50] In the same month, Abubakar was embroiled in controversy as he was accused of falsifying his certificates.^[51]

In November, a new dynamic entered the race due to the simmering feud between Mohammed and PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar (along with former Governor Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu and former Senator Abdul Ahmed Ningi).^[52] Analysis from The Nation noted the PDP divides as a potentially major factor in the election in addition to regional and religious factors.^[53] Conversely, the APC faced division as former Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar backed Mohammed over Abubakar in December 2022.^[54] As the election neared in February 2023, review of the race's regional factors noted the importance of the highly competitive, vote-heavy Bauchi South Senatorial District amid the PDP crisis in the area; the likelihood that Abubakar would win the Bauchi North Senatorial District due to its large number of prominent APC stalwarts; and the likelihood that Mohammed would win the Bauchi Central Senatorial District as Jika is expected to split the anti-PDP vote.^[55]

Later in February, focus switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Bauchi State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won the state with 50.0% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 37.1% and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) at 8.5%. Despite the presidential result, gubernatorial election analysis reiterated the race's competitiveness along with continued fights between Mohammed and other PDP figures.^[56][57] Nonetheless, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Mohammed to win based on "how the presidential elections played out."^[58]

• 2023 Nigerian elections
• 2023 Nigerian gubernatorial elections