The 2023 Adamawa State gubernatorial election took place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Adamawa State, concurrent with elections to the Adamawa State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.^[1][2] The election — which was postponed from its original 11 March date — was held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.^[3] Incumbent Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri (PDP) was re-elected by a 3.75% margin over first runner-up and APC nominee — Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed.^[4]

The primaries, scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022, resulted in Fintiri winning the Peoples Democratic Party primary unopposed on 26 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Senator for Adamawa Central Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed on 25 May.^[5][6] Although a Federal High Court ruling nullified the APC primary on 14 October, an Appeal Court judgment overturned the nullification and reinstated Ahmed on 24 November.^[7][8]

The conduct of the general election was highly controversial with INEC failing to declare the results by 20 March due to delays in counting due to logistical problems and attempted electoral interference. Later on 20 March, INEC declared the election inconclusive; Fintiri and the PDP rejected the declaration, having already alleged a plot to rig the election in favour of Ahmed.^[9][10][11] The commission set the supplementary election on 15 April, along with other supplementary elections nationwide.^[12]

As collation was still in progress on the early morning of 16 April, INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner Hudu Ari declared Ahmed as the victor; the declaration led to immediate protest as the Resident Electoral Commissioner does not have the power to declare a winner, collation was incomplete, and Ari refused to give any data on the purported results.^[13] In response, the national INEC called Ari's declaration "null, void and of no effect" before summoning him to the INEC headquarters in Abuja and barring him from office.^[14][15] On 17 April, returning officer Mohammed Mele declared the genuine results: in total, Fintiri obtained nearly 431,000 votes and 50% of the vote as runner-up Ahmed received almost 399,000 votes and 47% of the vote.^[4] The controversial and prolonged election process drew public outrage with critics calling the process a "new low" and "dance of shame" for INEC amid various other electoral controversies.^[16] Journalists noted potential credibility issues Fintiri could face due to the declaration scandal.^[17]

The Governor of Adamawa State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Adamawa State is a large, diverse northeastern state in the process of recovering from the worst of the Boko Haram insurgency. The state also has to contend with an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector and low education rates along with continued security challenges from Boko Haram and ISWAP to sustained conflict between herders and farmers.

Politically, the 2019 Adamawa elections were a swing back to the PDP as its presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar won the state back from Buhari and Fintiri unseated APC Governor Bindo Jibrilla. Legislatively the PDP also gained ground, winning two Senate seats, five House of Representatives seats, and control of the House of Assembly. During Fintiri's term, his administration stated focuses included increased security, ethnic and religious harmony, and water resource management. In terms of his performance, Fintiri was commended for civil service reform while being criticized for having few accomplishments of his own and disregarding FAAN airport health protocols in July 2020.^[18][19][20]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.^[2][21] According to some candidates and community leaders, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Adamawa Central Senatorial District to have the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Adamawa governors have come from either the Adamawa South or Adamawa North Senatorial Districts. However, no major party has yet closed their primaries to candidates from the North or South.^[22]

In the months after the primaries, pundits noted the potential boost that Fintiri could receive due to Adamawa-native Atiku Abubakar's nomination to be the PDP presidential nominee; another issue for Ahmed was due to the APC presidential ticket—APC nominee Bola Tinubu's selection of Kashim Shettima created a Muslim-Muslim ticket, violating an unwritten convention against same religion tickets—with pundits noting the religious diversity of Adamawa and the opposition forming against the APC among northern Christians. There were also issues within the Adamawa APC as Nuhu Ribadu—runner-up in the gubernatorial primary—contested the primary results leading to an internal party crisis that culminated in the removal of state party chair Ibrahim Bilal in September 2022.^[58] Nonetheless, observers also noted Ahmed's strong support base among women voters and historic candidacy to become the first elected woman governor. Analysts claimed that Ahmed's popularity with women may have led Fintiri to drop incumbent Deputy Governor Crowther Seth as his running mate for Kaletapwa Farauta in order to achieve a gender balanced ticket.^[59][60][61] Another major factor was the ability for Fintiri to retain his support in the Numan area and among the Christian minority; both demographics were vital for Fintiri in 2019.^[60][61] By September, pundits were questioning the effects of misogyny against Ahmed and the political clout of respective running mates along with potential of the more prominent minor parties—Labour Party and Social Democratic Party.^[61]

However, the next month brought a massive shift to the race as the APC primary was annulled through a Federal High Court ruling that also refused to accede to a new primary, effectively barring the APC from the election.^[7] However, a Court of Appeal judgment in late November overturned the previous ruling, reinstating Ahmed as nominee.^[8] Despite the successful appeal and Ribadu's acceptance of the ruling, internal rifts created by the legal battle remained as Ahmed supporters feuded with backers of First Lady Aisha Buhari—who had reportedly argued for a Ribadu-led ticket if the Court of Appeal ordered the party to conduct a new primary.^[62]

By January 2023, campaigning intensified as litigation concluded and the election neared. Ahmed focused on women voters at rallies while Fintiri received the endorsement of the influential Church of the Brethren in Nigeria.^[63][64] Analysis from SMB Intelligence also noted ethnicity-based voting as a possibility (Ahmed is an ethnic Fulani while Fintiri is ethnically Marghi); however, the piece focused moreso on the influence of Abubakar on the race.^[65] The next month, focus switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Adamawa State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won the state with 57.1% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 25.0% and Peter Obi (LP) at 14.5%. Although the result was unsurprising as Adamawa is in Abubakar's home state and projections had favored him, the totals led to increased attention on Fintiri's chances in the gubernatorial race with the EiE-SBM forecast projecting Fintiri to win based on "the outcome of the presidential elections" while a Premium Times article noted the potential effect of ethnic dynamics.^[66][67] However, reporting from the Daily Post noted that Ahmed had been underestimated in previous elections and could receive a boost from Tinubu's vote in the presidential election.^[68] Observers also reiterated the significance of Ahmed's historic candidacy for women in the wake of the federal elections' backslide in female representation, especially considering allegations that the PDP had worked with misogynistic clerics in an attempt to discredit the possibility of a woman becoming governor.^[69][67]

• 2023 Nigerian elections
• 2023 Nigerian gubernatorial elections