2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_North_Dakota
The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative for North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the U.S. Senate election, as well as other statewide, legislative, and local elections.
Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...
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 County results Armstrong: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Schneider: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Though incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer announced on January 11, 2018, he will run for re-election to a fourth term, he later indicated an intention to run for the United States Senate instead.[1][2][3] On February 16, 2018, Cramer announced his Senate campaign.
State Senator Tom Campbell has stated he intends to run for the U.S. Senate if Cramer runs for re-election and to run for the U.S. House if Cramer does not run for re-election.[4] Campbell declared for the seat following Cramer's run for Senate. However, on April 11, Campbell dropped out of the race to endorse Armstrong.[5]
Candidates
Nominated
- Kelly Armstrong, state senator[6]
Declared
Withdrew
- Tom Campbell, state senator[9]
Declined
- Kevin Cramer, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)[2][3]
- Gary Emineth, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party[10]
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tiffany Abentroth |
Kelly Armstrong |
Tom Campbell |
Julie Fedorchak |
DuWayne Hendrickson |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | February 21–24, 2018 | 385 | ± 5.0% | 1% | 13% | 28% | 9% | 1% | 47% |
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Hypothetical polling
Results
Armstrong—80–90%
Armstrong—70–80%
Armstrong—60–70%
Armstrong—50–60%
Armstrong—40–50%
Abentroth—30–40%
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kelly Armstrong | 37,054 | 56.23 | |
| Republican | Tom Campbell (withdrawn) | 17,692 | 26.85 | |
| Republican | Tiffany Abentroth | 5,877 | 8.92 | |
| Republican | Paul Schaffner | 5,203 | 7.90 | |
| Republican | Write-Ins | 75 | 0.11 | |
| Total votes | 65,901 | 100.00 | ||
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The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Mac Schneider. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a primary election to be held June 12, both other candidates decided to withdraw from the race, rather than challenge Schneider in the primary.[11]
Candidates
Endorsed
- Mac Schneider, former Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate[12][13]
Withdrawn
- Ben Hanson, former state representative[14][11]
- John Grabinger, state senator[15][13]
Results
Schneider—100%
Schneider—≥90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic–NPL | Mac Schneider | 33,545 | 99.78 | |
| Democratic–NPL | Write-Ins | 74 | 0.22 | |
| Total votes | 33,619 | 100.00 | ||
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Predictions
More information Source, Ranking ...
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[16] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| The Rothenberg Political Report[17] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Safe R | June 6, 2018 |
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Debates
Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelly Armstrong (R) |
Mac Schneider (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOX News | October 27–30, 2018 | 789 LV | ± 3.0% | 55% | 33% | 2% | 10% |
| 851 RV | ± 3.0% | 52% | 32% | 3% | 12% | ||
| Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine | October 12–19, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 56% | 35% | – | 9% |
| FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 704 LV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 34% | 2% | 12% |
| 801 V | ± 3.5% | 49% | 33% | 2% | 14% | ||
| Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine | September 17–27, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 55% | 31% | – | 14% |
| FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 701 LV | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 2% | 15% |
| 804 V | ± 3.5% | 47% | 32% | 2% | 17% | ||
| Axis Research (R-Armstrong) | August 26–28, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.5% | 53% | 32% | – | 15% |
| Mason-Dixon | June 13–15, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 35% | – | 19% |
| Axis Research (R-Armstrong) | May 13–14, 2018 | 509 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 26% | – | 26% |
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Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kelly Armstrong | 193,568 | 60.20% | -8.93% | |
| Democratic–NPL | Mac Schneider | 114,377 | 35.57% | +11.82% | |
| Independent | Charles Tuttle | 13,066 | 4.06% | N/A | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 521 | 0.16% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 321,532 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Cass (largest city: Fargo)
- Grand Forks (largest city: Grand Forks)
- Benson (Largest CDP: Fort Totten)
- Ransom (Largest city: Lisbon)
- Steele (Largest city: Finley)
- Schor, Elana; Everett, Burgess (November 18, 2016). "2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
- Robillard, Kevin (January 11, 2018). "Cramer won't run for Senate in North Dakota". Politico. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
- Golshan, Tara (February 15, 2018). "A vulnerable North Dakota Democratic senator just attracted a serious GOP challenger". Vox. Vox Media. Retrieved February 15, 2018.
- Hageman, John (November 22, 2016). "Grafton senator eyes congressional run". Grand Forks Herald. Retrieved November 23, 2016.
- "Tom Campbell Drops Out of North Dakota House Race". April 11, 2018.
- MacPherson, James (April 7, 2018). "ND GOP endorses Armstrong". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Associated Press. Retrieved April 19, 2018.
- "Marine Vet Tiffany Abentroth Seeks ND's Sole U.S. House Seat". Military.com. February 20, 2018. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
- Hageman, John; Springer, Patrick (April 11, 2018). "Campbell drops out of US House race, paving way for GOP's Armstrong". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Forum News Service. Retrieved April 19, 2018.
- Garcia, Eric (April 11, 2018). "Tom Campbell Drops Out of North Dakota House Race". Roll Call.
- Hageman, John (February 19, 2018). "Emineth won't run for US House in North Dakota".
- Hageman, John (March 20, 2018). "Hanson endorses fellow ND Democrat Mac Schneider in US House Race". Inforum. Retrieved March 20, 2018.
- Easter, Sam (March 6, 2018). "Mac Schneider launches U.S. House bid in Grand Forks". Grand Forks Herald. Retrieved March 6, 2018.
- Hageman, John (March 17, 2018). "Democrats endorse Schneider for US House Race". Grand Forks Herald. Retrieved March 17, 2018.
- Haney, Don (August 16, 2017). "Ben Hanson, former legislator from West Fargo announces bid for congress". KFGO. Retrieved August 16, 2017.
- Norman, Keith (February 26, 2018). "Grabinger running for U.S. House". The Jamestown Sun. Retrieved February 26, 2018.
- "House Maps". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
- "South Dakota | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 House". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved June 7, 2018.
- Prairie Public Broadcasting (September 11, 2018), ND House Debate Kelly Armstrong (R) & Mac Schneider (D), retrieved September 24, 2018
- "US House Candidates Agree on Marijuana, Argue About Trade". U.S. News. September 19, 2018.
- Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites