2015_Aragonese_regional_election

2015 Aragonese regional election

2015 Aragonese regional election

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The 2015 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Quick Facts All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon 34 seats needed for a majority, Registered ...

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one).[1][3]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:[4]

More information Seats, Constituencies ...

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[5]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 21 June 2015.[1][3][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

The Cortes of Aragon were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOA, setting the election date for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 18 June.[4]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[7]

More information Groups, Parties ...

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

More information Candidacy, Parties and alliances ...

Campaign

Election debates

More information Date, Organisers ...

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Results

Overall

More information Parties and alliances, Popular vote ...
More information Popular vote ...
More information Seats ...

Distribution by constituency

More information Constituency, PP ...

Aftermath

More information Ballot →, 3 July 2015 ...

Notes

  1. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  2. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  3. Within PP.
  4. Within IU.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. "Sondeo de FORTA en Aragón: PP, 20-23 escaños; PSOE, 16-18; Podemos, 14-16; Ciudadanos, 7-8; PAR, 5-6; CHA, 2-3, e IU, 1-2". Aragón Radio (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
  2. "Aragón. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-17.
  3. "Situación política en Aragón". El País (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
  4. "El PP, ante el minifundio de partidos". ABC (in Spanish). 16 May 2015.
  5. "ARAGÓN, Abril 2015. Sondeo A+M". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2015.
  6. "Aragón. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 April 2015. Retrieved 20 April 2015.
  7. "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  8. "El PP adelanta en 1,6 puntos al PSOE en Aragón (El Heraldo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 23 April 2014. Archived from the original on 26 April 2014.
  9. "ARAGÓN, Abril 2014. A+M / Heraldo de Aragón". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2014.
  10. "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016.
  11. "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 2 March 2015.
  12. "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  13. "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
Other
  1. Ley Orgánica 5/2007, de 20 de abril, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Aragón (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 20 April 2007. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. Ley 2/1987, de 16 de febrero, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Law 2) (in Spanish). 12 February 1987. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  4. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  5. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  6. "Elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón (desde 1983)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 December 2023.
  7. "Rajoy se abona a retrasar nombramientos: "Habrá candidatos en febrero, o no"". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 13 February 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  8. "Lambán, proclamado candidato del PSOE a las autonómicas de Aragón". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 14 March 2014. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  9. "José Luis Soro, elegido presidente de CHA con el 74,2% de los votos". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 11 February 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  10. "Susana Gaspar será la candidata de Ciudadanos en Aragón". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 14 March 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  11. Tragacete, M. (12 May 2015). "Guerra de cifras en el cara a cara entre Lambán y Rudi". Heraldo de Aragón. Zaragoza. Retrieved 4 May 2023.
  12. Vallés, M. (16 May 2015). "El debate a siete confronta dos modelos políticos antagónicos". El Periódico de Aragón. Retrieved 4 May 2023.
  13. "Cortes of Aragon election results, 24 May 2015" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Aragon. 9 June 2015. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
  14. "Aragon Electoral Archive. Cortes of Aragon election, 2015. Autonomous Community of Aragon". servicios.aragon.es (in Spanish). Government of Aragon. Retrieved 26 September 2017.

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