2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Dakota
The 2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other United States Senate elections, United States House of Representatives elections, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic-NPL Senator Kent Conrad decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a fifth term.
Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
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| Turnout | 60.6% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results State senate district resultsHeitkamp: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 80–90% Berg: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Though each party endorses a single candidate in state conventions in the spring, ballot access for the general election was determined in a primary election held on June 12, 2012.[2]
Heidi Heitkamp, a Democratic-NPL former North Dakota Attorney General, won the open seat over Republican Rick Berg, North Dakota's at-large U.S. Representative, by a margin of 0.9%.[3] Heitkamp outperformed President Barack Obama by 20.5%, the latter having lost North Dakota by 19.6% in the concurrent presidential election.[4] Heitkamp's very narrow winning margin made it the closest race of the 2012 United States Senate elections.
As of 2024[update], this was the last time a Democrat won a federal and/or statewide election in North Dakota.[5]
The North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16–18, 2012, in Grand Forks. Former state attorney general and 2000 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Heidi Heitkamp was uncontested in seeking the official party nomination and was the only member of the party elected to appear on the state primary ballot.[6]
Candidates
Nominee
- Heidi Heitkamp, former attorney general of North Dakota and nominee for Governor of North Dakota in 2000[7]
Withdrew
Declined
- Kent Conrad, incumbent U.S. Senator[10]
- Pam Gulleson, former state representative and former chief of staff and former state director for former senator Byron Dorgan[11]
- Kristin Hedger, nominee for North Dakota Secretary of State in 2006[12]
- Joel Heitkamp, brother of Heidi Heitkamp, radio personality and former state senator[13]
- Roger Johnson, president of the National Farmers Union and former North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner[14]
- Tim Mathern, state senator and nominee for governor in 2008[15]
- Earl Pomeroy, former U.S. Representative[16]
- Tracy Potter, state senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[15]
- Tim Purdon, U.S. Attorney[17]
- Jasper Schneider, USDA rural development State Director[15][18]
- Mac Schneider, state senator[12]
- Ryan Taylor, Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate[19]
North Dakota Republicans endorsed U.S. Representative Rick Berg at their convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, declared candidate Duane Sand did not seek the party endorsement, trying instead to defeat Berg on the June primary ballot.[20]
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Duane Sand, former North and South Dakota Director for Americans for Prosperity and nominee for ND-AL in 2004 and 2008[23]
Declined
- Al Carlson, North Dakota state house majority leader[24]
- Tony Clark, state public service commissioner[25]
- Kevin Cramer, state public service commissioner[25]
- Jack Dalrymple, North Dakota governor and 1992 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate[26]
- Cory Fong, state tax commissioner[27]
- Shane Goettle, U.S. Senator John Hoeven's state director[28]
- Tony Grindberg, state senator[29]
- Bob Harms, North Dakota Republican Party treasurer[15]
- Brian Kalk, state public service commissioner (running for House)[30]
- Kim Koppelman, state representative[31]
- Ed Schafer, former U.S. agriculture secretary and former North Dakota governor[32]
- Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota treasurer[33]
- Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota attorney general[34]
- John Warford, mayor of Bismarck[35]
- Drew Wrigley, North Dakota lieutenant governor[26]
Endorsements
Rick Berg
- Individuals
- Katie Anderson, Mayor of Jamestown
- John Hoeven, United States Senator from North Dakota
- Kay Bailey Hutchison, United States Senator from Texas
- Mike Hynek, Mayor of Stanley
- Dennis Johnson, Mayor of Dickinson
- Nancy Johnson, state representative
- Ward Koeser, Mayor of Williston
- Rich Mattern, Mayor of West Fargo
- Ed McConnell, Mayor of Casselton
- George Nodland, state senator
- Mitt Romney
- Brent Sanford, Mayor of Watford City
- Mike Schatz, state representative
- Vicky Steiner, state representative
- Jim Sturdevant, Mayor of Wahpeton
- Rich Wardner, State Senate Majority Leader
- John Warford, Mayor of Bismarck
- Curt Zimbelman, Mayor of Minot
- Organizations
- Susan B. Anthony List
- NRA Political Victory Fund[36]
- North Dakota Farm Bureau
Polling
Results
Berg—80–90%
Berg—70–80%
Berg—60–70%
Berg—50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Berg | 67,849 | 66.41% | |
| Republican | Duane Sand | 34,209 | 33.48% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 111 | .41% | |
| Total votes | 102,281 | 100.00% | ||
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Candidates
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 15, 2012 - C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 - C-SPAN
Fundraising
More information Candidate (party), Receipts ...
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi Heitkamp (D) | $5,341,362 | $5,318,232 | $23,130 | $0 |
| Rick Berg (R) | $6,501,693 | $6,129,026 | $316,641 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[41][42] | ||||
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Top contributors
More information Heidi Heitkamp, Contribution ...
| Heidi Heitkamp | Contribution | Rick Berg | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motley Rice LLC | $41,750 | Verizon Communications | $43,666 |
| Council for a Livable World | $26,705 | Elliott Management Corporation | $29,413 |
| Weitz & Luxenberg | $22,400 | NORPAC | $26,700 |
| Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP | $15,050 | Mewbourne Oil Co | $25,000 |
| Medcenter One Health Systems | $12,000 | Rurban Financial | $22,700 |
| American Association for Justice | $10,833 | Hess Corp | $22,500 |
| Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld | $10,750 | NACCO Industries | $22,000 |
| American Federation of Teachers | $10,300 | Marathon Oil | $21,000 |
| Patton Boggs LLP | $10,250 | Berkshire Hathaway | $20,500 |
| American Postal Workers Union | $10,000 | Koch Industries | $20,000 |
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Top industries
More information Heidi Heitkamp, Contribution ...
| Heidi Heitkamp | Contribution | Rick Berg | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $433,811 | Oil & gas | $433,949 |
| Leadership PACs | $284,500 | Leadership PACs | $277,163 |
| Women's issues | $111,593 | Financial institutions | $274,941 |
| Lobbyists | $103,635 | Retired | $218,909 |
| Retired | $100,812 | Real estate | $171,686 |
| Agribusiness | $78,450 | Agribusiness | $163,583 |
| Public sector unions | $73,800 | Insurance | $140,011 |
| Financial institutions | $64,713 | Commercial banks | $127,140 |
| Education | $60,960 | Health professionals | $114,438 |
| Building trade unions | $52,500 | Mining | $106,804 |
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Independent expenditures
In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced that it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[45]
Predictions
More information Source, Ranking ...
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[46] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Inside Elections[47] | Tilt R (flip) | November 2, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[49] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
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Polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Heidi Heitkamp (D) |
Rick Berg (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharos Research | November 2–5, 2012 | 503 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 49% | — | 4% |
| Pharos Research[50] | October 26–28, 2012 | 752 | ± 3.6% | 50% | 48% | — | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 26–28, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | — | 8% |
| The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) | October 21–24, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | — | 7% |
| Pharos Research | October 19–21, 2012 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 48% | — | 3% |
| The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) | October 16–19, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 17–18, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 50% | — | 5% |
| Essman Research | October 12–15, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 50% | — | 10% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 3–5, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | — | 6% |
| DFM Research (D) | September 24–27, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | — | 8% |
| DFM Research (D) | July 24–26, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 50% | 44% | — | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 10–11, 2012 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 40% | 49% | 2% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon[37] | June 4–6, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | — | 7% |
| Essman Research[38] | May 3–8, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 44% | 51% | — | 5% |
| DFM Research (D) | April 18–26, 2012 | 478 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 44% | 1% | 6% |
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Results
More information Party, Candidate ...
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic–NPL | Heidi Heitkamp | 161,337 | 50.24% | -18.58% | |
| Republican | Rick Berg | 158,401 | 49.32% | +19.79% | |
| Write-in | 1,406 | 0.44% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 321,144 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic–NPL hold | |||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Adams (largest city: Hettinger)
- Billings (largest city: Medora)
- Bottineau (largest city: Bottineau)
- Bowman (largest city: Bowman)
- Burke (largest city: Powers Lake)
- Burleigh (largest city: Bismarck)
- Dickey (largest city: Oakes)
- Dunn (largest city: Killdeer)
- Emmons (largest city: Linton)
- Golden Valley (largest city: Beach)
- Grant (largest city: Elgin)
- Hettinger (largest city: Mott)
- Kidder (largest city: Steele)
- LaMoure (largest city: LaMoure)
- Logan (largest city: Napoleon)
- McIntosh (largest city: Wishek)
- McKenzie (largest city: Watford City)
- McLean (largest city: Garrison)
- Mercer (largest city: Beulah)
- Morton (largest city: Mandan)
- Oliver (largest city: Center)
- Pierce (largest city: Rugby)
- Renville (largest city: Mohall)
- Sheridan (largest city: McClusky)
- Slope (largest city: Marmarth)
- Stark (largest city: Dickinson)
- Ward (largest city: Minot)
- Wells (largest city: Harvey)
- Williams (largest city: Williston)
- Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
- "North Dakota election calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State. July 2011. Retrieved August 17, 2011.
- Kate Nocera (November 7, 2012). "Heidi Heitkamp scores upset win in North Dakota". Politico. Retrieved April 17, 2014.
- "Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota?". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved October 21, 2019.
- The Associated Press (February 22, 2024). "North Dakota Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer says he's seeking reelection". Toronto Star. Retrieved February 23, 2024.
- "ND Democrats set their fall legislative ticket". Newsday. Associated Press. March 17, 2012. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
- Daum, Kristen M (November 8, 2011). "SPECULATION NO MORE: Heitkamp announces U.S. Senate run". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 8, 2011.
- Nodland, Chad (October 25, 2011). "Tom Potter: I'm Running For Senate". NorthDecoder.com. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- Smith, Nick (February 24, 2012). "Potter drops Senate bid". The Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
- Haga, Chuck (January 18, 2011). "Conrad will not run for re-election in 2012". Grand Forks Herald. Archived from the original on December 16, 2012. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
- Miller, Joshua (September 26, 2011). "Ex-State Rep. Pam Gulleson Launches House Bid". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 16, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- "State Sen. Schneider: 2012 U.S. Senate race not now 'in the cards'". Grand Forks Herald. August 1, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.[permanent dead link](subscription required)
- Catanese, David (November 1, 2011). "Heitkamp telling Dems she's running for Senate". Politico. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
- Miller, Tricia (January 18, 2011). "Retirements Shuffle 2012 Senate Landscape". Roll Call. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
- Beitsch, Rebecca (January 18, 2011). "Neither party lacking Senate contenders". Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
- Trygstad, Kyle; Toeplitz, Shira (April 11, 2011). "West Virginia, North Dakota Senate Race Ratings Change". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- Sullivan, Sean (April 28, 2011). "Club For Growth Slams Berg". National Journal. Archived from the original on April 6, 2012. Retrieved April 29, 2011.
- Rodgers, Ben (January 19, 2011). "Schneider says he hasn't ruled out running for Conrad's Senate seat". The Jamestown Sun. Retrieved January 19, 2011.[permanent dead link]
- "Democrat Taylor joins race for N.D. governor". Grand Forks Herald. December 12, 2011. Retrieved December 19, 2011.[permanent dead link](subscription required)
- Daum, Kristen (March 29, 2012). "Divide within North Dakota's GOP creates friction in endorsement process". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved March 29, 2012.[permanent dead link]
- Sobel, Julie (May 16, 2011). "Berg Enters N.D. Senate Race". National Journal: Hotline On Call. Archived from the original on November 4, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- Toeplitz, Shira (May 16, 2011). "House Freshman Berg Will Run for Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- "Sand Announces Entry into North Dakota Senate Race" (Press release). Standard Newswire. August 8, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- Toeplitz, Shira (May 3, 2011). "N.D. GOP Expecting Competitive House Race". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 6, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- Catanese, David (April 26, 2011). "N.D. lawmakers unite behind Berg for Senate". Politico. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- Smith, Nick (November 3, 2011). "Dalrymple to run in 2012". Williston Herald. Retrieved November 3, 2011.
- Daum, Kristen M (October 13, 2011). "N.D. tax commissioner opts against congressional bid in 2012". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on December 18, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- Daum, Kristen M (November 29, 2011). "Goettle declares as 4th GOP contender in 2012 U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 29, 2011.
- Beitsch, Rebecca (May 13, 2011). "Sand starts Senate campaign committee". Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- Trygstad, Kyle (May 20, 2011). "Kalk to Run for House Instead of Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Retrieved May 20, 2011.
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- Finneman, Teri (February 20, 2012). "Kelly Schmidt to seek third term as North Dakota treasurer". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved February 25, 2012.[permanent dead link]
- Gonzales, Nathan L (April 26, 2011). "Berg Senate Run Likely in North Dakota". Roll Call. Archived from the original on April 29, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- Bunk, Matt (June 1, 2011). "In Focus with Bismarck Mayor John Warford". Great Plains Examiner. Archived from the original on June 13, 2011. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
- "ND House candidates attract dueling endorsements for pro-gun groups". Grand Forks Herald. Fargo. October 13, 2012. Archived from the original on August 2, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- "Heitkamp Leads Berg in Latest Poll". Valley News Live. Gray Television. June 7, 2012. Archived from the original on June 7, 2012.
- Daum, Kristen (May 17, 2012). "Poll: Berg leads Heitkamp in U.S. Senate race". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Forum Communications. Archived from the original on May 23, 2012.
- "Candidate throws his name into the U.S. Senate Race". WDAY-TV. Forum Communications Company. September 6, 2012. Archived from the original on September 10, 2012.
- "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota HEITKAMP, HEIDI". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
- "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota BERG, RICHARD A". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
- "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
- "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race: Top Industries". OpenSecrets. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
- Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
- "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- "North Dakota Polling Report: 10/26/12-10/28/12" (PDF). Pharos Research Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 20, 2014.
- "OFFICIAL 2012 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". results.sos.nd.gov. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
- North Dakota Secretary of State
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets
- Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
- Candidate issue positions at On the Issues
- Official campaign websites (Archived)