Analysis

Exit polling by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen indicated that state politics was primary for most voters. 55% said it was most important in their voting decision, while 41% said federal politics was more important, and only 15% said their vote was a protest against the federal government. An overwhelming majority of voters (78%) named education as an important issue, alongside the Greek debt crisis (56%). Only 38% considered CDU finance scandals important. According to Infratest dimap polling, economic development, education, and budget deficits were the most important issues. The SPD was considered more competent in the areas of education and social welfare, while the CDU led in economics and finance. Compared to the 2005 election, while the issue of employment lost salience, perception of the SPD's competence in the area recovered while the CDU's declined.

Jürgen Rüttgers had particularly poor personal ratings. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen found that only 40% of voters preferred him as Minister-President compared to 43% for Hannelore Kraft, an unusual result in Germany where incumbents are typically favoured over challengers, even in close elections. Kraft was rated as more persuasive, sympathetic, and in-touch. Nonetheless, a majority of voters placed more importance on programme and policy when voting, with only one-sixth choosing the lead candidates as the decisive factor. The CDU and SPD did poorly among young voters, who voted strongly for the Greens and non-parliamentary minor parties. Voters over 60 gave much more support to the major parties, particularly the CDU.^{[11][12][13][14]}

Government formation

The incumbent CDU–FDP government lost its majority by a wide margin, taking 80 of the 181 seats. However, a prospective SPD–Green coalition came up just one seat short of a majority with 90 seats of the 91 required. There were four plausible majority coalitions: a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD (134 seats), a CDU–Green–FDP "Jamaica" coalition or SPD–Green–FDP "traffic light" coalition (both 103 seats), or an SPD–Green–Left "red-green-red" coalition (101 seats). The CDU aimed for a Jamaica coalition or grand coalition, while the SPD hoped, in order of preference, for a traffic light, red-green-red, or grand coalition.^[15]

The prospect of a grand coalition was complicated by the extremely narrow margin of the election: both major parties took 67 seats in the Landtag, and the question of who would serve as Minister-President was disputed. Rüttgers insisted he would continue in office since the CDU won more votes than the SPD, while Kraft insisted that she should take over given the harsh losses of the CDU.^[16]

The SPD first approached the Greens for discussions, with the intention of then seeking a third partner – either the FDP or Left, with a preference for the former. On the morning of the 14th, they sent invitations to both. The Left accepted, but the FDP declined, with leader Andreas Pinkwart stating: "The offer from the SPD and the Greens obviously lacks any seriousness, otherwise the Left Party would not have been invited on the same day. ... The traffic light and Jamaica are no longer coalition options."^[17] After the first meeting between the SPD–Green bloc and Left on the 20th, Hannelore Kraft announced that talks had been unsuccessful. She cited problematic sentiments about East Germany and a lack of willingness to take responsibility by The Left as factors. The SPD then invited the CDU to talks for a grand coalition, while the Greens withdrew in the expectation that they would remain in opposition.^[18]

After three rounds of meetings, the SPD withdrew from talks on 2 June citing a lack of compromise from the CDU. Kraft said they were unwilling to change policy or personnel, while Rüttgers insisted that only a few contentious issues remained. The previous day, the FDP had reversed their position and announced they were open to talks for a traffic light coalition.^[19] The three parties met on 8 June, and again on the 10th for about ten hours. The next day, the FDP announced that talks had failed: they had not been able to reconcile their positions, most especially with the Greens on education policy, and felt the demands of the SPD and Greens were too harsh.^[20] On 12 June, after a one-on-one meeting between Rüttgers and Kraft about a grand coalition, the SPD executive voted not to pursue further coalition options and instead withdraw into opposition. Kraft said that they would attempt to garner majorities for legislation on the floor of the Landtag.^[21] This was received poorly by the other parties, including the Greens, who called for a minority government.

On 17 June, the SPD reversed its position and Kraft announced that they would indeed attempt to form a minority government with the Greens. Shortly before, FDP leader Pinkwart had told the Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung that the coalition between the CDU and FDP had run its course, and that his party would push for "majority decisions in the interest of the state" in the Landtag. Reportedly, the SPD leadership saw this as the effective end of Rüttgers' government, which had been operating in a caretaker capacity since the election, and strengthened the likelihood of investing an SPD minority government.^[22] Though they hoped for cooperation from the FDP, the party executive unanimously decided on 22 June to vote against Kraft in the investiture and oppose a red-green government.^[23]

Minority governments are possible in North Rhine-Westphalia due to the procedure for electing the Minister-President: the initial hurdle for election is an absolute majority (a majority of all members) in favour, but after a certain number of failed ballots it is reduced to a simple majority (a majority of all votes cast). Since the SPD and Greens together held more seats than the CDU and FDP, they would be able to win so long as The Left abstained. The SPD and Greens did not consult The Left and rejected suggestions that they were relying on them, but once they FDP made it clear that they would vote against Kraft, they did tacitly require tolerance from The Left or their government would fail. The SPD and Greens quickly concluded a coalition agreement, with both parties ratifying it on 10 July.

The investiture took place on 14 July. Hannelore Kraft, proposed by the SPD and Greens, was the only candidate. In the first ballot, she received 90 votes in favour, 81 against, and ten abstentions, suggesting that one Left deputy voted against. The second ballot required only a simple majority. Kraft was elected with 90 votes in favour, 80 against, and eleven abstentions.^[24]

Landtag

The new Landtag met for its inaugural session on 9 June. By convention, the largest party nominates the presiding officer (President of the Landtag), but the tie in seats between the CDU and SPD made it unclear who had the right. The two parties were also concerned that the selection of the president could affect the outcome of government negotiations. They agreed to put off the question by exploiting a constitutional loophole: if no new presiding officer is elected at the inaugural session, the outgoing president from the previous term remains in office. They convened the council of elders of the previous Landtag to remove the election of the presiding officer from the agenda of the inaugural session, claiming there were no applicants. Outgoing president Regina van Dinther (CDU) thus remained in office and chaired the inaugural session. However, she had lost her seat in the election and resigned the presidency effective at the conclusion of the 9 June session. The office thus passed to outgoing first vice-president Edgar Moron (SPD), who had also lost his seat; though he was no longer a member of the Landtag, he served acting president until 17 July, when Eckhard Uhlenberg (CDU) was finally elected. This situation was harshly criticised in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung by Patrick Bahners, who labeled it an act of "self-rejection" contrary to the principles of democracy.^[25]