2008_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana
2008 United States Senate election in Montana
Statewide election
The 2008 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Senator Max Baucus won re-election to a sixth term in a landslide, winning more than 70% of the vote and carrying every county in the state, despite Republican John McCain's narrow victory in the state in the concurrent presidential election. Baucus later resigned his seat on February 6, 2014 after the Senate confirmed him to be U.S. Ambassador to China, having already announced his intention to retire at the end of term on April 23, 2013. As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 2 Senate seat in Montana.
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 County results Baucus: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Montana generally gives its presidential electors to Republican candidates, but historically has elected several prominent Democrats to the United States Senate, including Thomas Walsh, Burton K. Wheeler, Mike Mansfield, and Lee Metcalf. Between 1913 and 2015, only two Republicans served as U.S. Senator from Montana, Zales Ecton and Conrad Burns. In 2004, the state elected Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer, reversing a 16-year trend of electing Republicans to the Governorship. In the 2006 elections, the Republican Party took over the state House of Representatives in Montana, the only pick-up of a state legislature for the Republicans.
Candidates
- Max Baucus, incumbent U.S. Senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Max Baucus (incumbent) | 165,050 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 165,050 | 100.00% | ||
Candidates
- Kirk Bushman, businessman
- Bob Kelleher, attorney and perennial candidate
- Michael Lange, State Representative
- Patty Lovaas, accountant
- Anton Pearson, rancher
- Garnett Shay, engineer
Campaign
All Republican candidates trailed Baucus badly in polls. It was revealed that Garnett Shay had an outstanding warrant for his arrest, preventing him from running an effective campaign.[2]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bob Kelleher | 26,936 | 36.32% | |
| Republican | Michael Lange | 17,044 | 22.98% | |
| Republican | Kirk Bushman | 15,507 | 20.91% | |
| Republican | Patty Lovaas | 7,632 | 10.29% | |
| Republican | Anton Pearson | 4,257 | 5.74% | |
| Republican | Garnett Shay | 2,788 | 3.76% | |
| Total votes | 74,164 | 100.00% | ||
Candidates
- Max Baucus (D), incumbent U.S. Senator.
- Bob Kelleher (R), attorney and perennial candidate
Campaign
Senator Baucus defeated Kelleher as a Democratic incumbent running in a year that was very successful for his party in general. The U.S. Senate race in Montana was somewhat unusual, in that it was perhaps the only race that year in which the Republican candidate was more liberal than the Democratic one. Kelleher, a perennial candidate and eccentric figure in Montana politics, took many positions that were highly unorthodox by GOP standards, such as favoring more liberal drug control policies, supporting universal healthcare and affirmative action, and favoring fair trade restrictions. He was, at the time, an 85-year-old attorney and perennial candidate who has run for office on several different party tickets. Kelleher was pro-life, advocated a Parliamentary system of government for the United States, and supported nationalization of the American oil and gas industry and a single-payer health care system.[3] He received no support from the Montana Republican Party.[4]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Safe D | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[6] | Safe D | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[7] | Safe D | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[8] | Safe D | November 4, 2008 |
Polling
| Poll Source | Dates administered | Max Baucus (D) |
Bob Kelleher (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | September 7, 2008 | 64% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 2, 2008 | 71% | 26% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Max Baucus (incumbent) | 348,289 | 72.92% | +10.18% | |
| Republican | Bob Kelleher | 129,369 | 27.08% | -4.65% | |
| Total votes | 477,658 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Carter (largest city: Ekalaka)
- Sweet Grass (largest city: Big Timber)
- Brown, Bob (June 4, 2002). "2002 Statewide Primary Canvass" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 11, 2011. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
- Gouras, Matt (March 26, 2008). "Recors Show Baucus Challenger has Outstanding Warrant in Indiana". Flathead Beacon. Archived from the original on July 26, 2011. Retrieved June 13, 2010.
- McKee, Jennifer (June 5, 2008). "16th time a charm for veteran candidate". Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved July 2, 2008.
- Johnson, Chuck. "Frequent candidate Kelleher dies at 88". Archived from the original on June 4, 2011. Retrieved September 10, 2012.
- "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on June 25, 2021. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Archived from the original on June 25, 2021. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Archived from the original on October 2, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
- "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives". Archived from the original on June 29, 2011. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
- 2008 Election Information from the Montana Secretary of State
- U.S. Congress candidates for Montana at Project Vote Smart
- Montana, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
- Montana U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- Montana U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
- Kelleher (R) vs Baucus (D-i) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2008 full National coverage from The Missoulian
- Official campaign websites (Archived)