2004_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina
Election
The 2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 2, 2004. Longtime incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings retired, and Republican U.S. Representative Jim DeMint won the open seat. DeMint was the first Republican to hold this Senate seat since 1879, and the first Republican to ever be popularly elected to the seat.
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 County results
DeMint: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold led observers to speculate that Hollings retiring would lead to his seat being picked up by a Republican.[1] Inez Tenenbaum, the South Carolina Superintendent of Education, would win the primary by a wide margin following the decision of many state Democrats to forgo a candidacy.
Candidates
Nominee
- Inez Tenenbaum, South Carolina Superintendent of Education
Eliminated in primary
- Ben Frasier, former congressional aide
Withdrew
- Bob Coble, mayor of Columbia[2] (endorsed Tenenbaum)
Declined to run
- Jim Clyburn, U.S. Representative[3]
- Hayne Hipp, businessman[4][3]
- Fritz Hollings, incumbent U.S. Senator (retired)
- Darla Moore, investor[5]
- Thomas L. Moore, state senator[3]
- Alex Sanders, former president of the College of Charleston; nominee for U.S. Senate in 2002[3]
- James E. Smith Jr., state representative[6]
- John Spratt, U.S. Representative[3]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Inez Tenenbaum | 126,720 | 75.5% | |
| Democratic | Ben Frasier | 41,070 | 24.5% | |
Candidates
Nominee
- Jim DeMint, U.S. Representative
Defeated in primary
- David Beasley, former governor
- Charlie Condon, State Attorney General
- Orly Benny Davis, businesswoman[8]
- Mark McBride, Mayor of Myrtle Beach[9]
- Thomas Ravenel, businessman
Campaign
The Senate election two years earlier in 2002 did not have a primary election because the South Carolina Republicans were more preoccupied with the gubernatorial contest, despite having the first open senate seat in 40 years. The retirement of Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings gave the Republicans an opportunity to pick up the seat and with no other interesting positions up for election in 2004, a crowded field developed in the Republican primary. Furthermore, the Republicans were motivated by having President Bush at the top of the ticket enabling them to ride his coattails to victory.
Former Governor David Beasley, from the Pee Dee, entered the race and quickly emerged as the frontrunner because of his support from the evangelical voters. However, during his term as governor from 1995 to 1999 he had greatly angered the electorate by proposing to remove the Confederate Naval Jack from the dome of the statehouse and by being against the adoption of a state lottery to provide for college scholarships. Both positions led to the loss of his re-election in 1998 and the issues continued to trouble him in the Senate race.
The battle for second place in the primary was between Upstate congressman, Jim DeMint, and Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel. DeMint was able to squeak out a second-place finish because Charlie Condon, a former Attorney General of South Carolina, split the Lowcountry vote with Ravenel thus providing DeMint the margin he needed. In addition, while many voters were attracted to the Ravenel campaign and felt that he had a future in politics, they believed that he should set his sights on a less high-profile office first before trying to become senator. Resigned to defeat, Ravenel endorsed DeMint in the runoff election.
In the runoff election on June 22, 2004, DeMint scored a surprising victory over Beasley. Ravenel's endorsement of DeMint proved crucial as the Lowcountry counties heavily went for the Representative from the Upstate. Also, Beasley had burnt too many bridges while governor and was unable to increase his share of the vote in the runoff.
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[10] |
Margin of error |
Jim DeMint |
David Beasley |
Thomas Ravenel |
Charlie Condon |
Mark McBride |
Bob Peeler |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | June 18–20, 2004 | 499 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 54% | 44% | 2% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 10–14, 2004 | 700 (LV) | 46% | 42% | 12% | |||||
| SurveyUSA | June 12–14, 2004 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 48% | 5% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 7, 2004 | 42% | 48% | 10% | ||||||
| Richard Quinn & Associates (R) (p. 2) | June 9–10, 2004 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 38% | 47% | 15% | ||||
| SurveyUSA | June 4–6, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 20% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 7% | ||
| SurveyUSA | May 22–24, 2004 | 421 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 21% | 43% | 17% | 16% | 3% | ||
| Richard Quinn & Associates (R) | May 11, 2004 | 467 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 18% | 40% | 11% | 9% | 22% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 2004 | 33% | 54% | 10% | ||||||
| SurveyUSA (p. 2) | April 26–28, 2004 | 427 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 27% | 38% | 19% | 16% | |||
| Richard Quinn & Associates (R) | February 4–5, 2004 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 13% | 41% | 9% | 15% | 2% | 20% | |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | January 2004 | 550 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 16% | 37% | 10% | 19% | 2% | 16% | |
| Richard Quinn & Associates (R) (p. 2) | October 17–20, 2003 | ± 3.8% | 8% | 24% | 8% | 16% | 44% | |||
| 24% | 44% | 32% | ||||||||
| 22% | 33% | 45% | ||||||||
| 44% | 28% | 28% | ||||||||
| Basswood Research (R) | April 29, 2003 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 4% | 27% | 4% | 46% |
Results
| Republican Primary | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | % |
| David Beasley | 107,847 | 36.6% |
| Jim DeMint | 77,567 | 26.3% |
| Thomas Ravenel | 73,167 | 24.8% |
| Charlie Condon | 27,694 | 9.4% |
| Mark McBride | 6,479 | 2.2% |
| Orly Benny Davis | 1,915 | 0.7% |
| Republican Primary Runoff | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| Jim DeMint | 154,644 | 59.2% | +32.9% |
| David Beasley | 106,480 | 40.8% | +4.2% |
Candidates
Major
- Jim DeMint (R), U.S. Representative
- Inez Tenenbaum (D), South Carolina Superintendent of Education
Minor
- Tee Ferguson (United Citizens)
- Efia Nwangaza (Green)
- Rebekah E. Sutherland (Libertarian)
- Patrick Tyndall (Constitution)
DeMint entered the general election campaign severely weakened from the primary fight, having spent most of his campaign funds. He stressed to the voters that he would follow conservative principles and provide an important Republican vote in the closely divided Senate. Democrats fared poorly in statewide elections in South Carolina, so Tenenbaum tried to make the race about issues rather than party identification.
Tenenbaum attacked DeMint's support of the FairTax proposal because it would increase the sales tax by 23%. The election victory by DeMint merely cemented South Carolina's shift to the Republican column as the best candidate the Democrats could offer was soundly defeated by the typical 10-point margin.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Likely R (flip) | November 1, 2004 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[10] |
Margin of error |
Jim DeMint (R) |
Inez Tenenbaum (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | October 29–31, 2004 | 635 (LV) | ± 4% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | October 26–28, 2004 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA | October 22–24, 2004 | 564 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 19–20, 2004 | 625 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA | October 10–12, 2004 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 6, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | September 29–30, 2004 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon | September 27–29, 2004 | 625 (RV) | ± 4% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | September 27–29, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| SurveyUSA | September 19–21, 2004 | 684 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | September 7–9, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| SurveyUSA | August 16–18, 2004 | 727 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA | July 10–12, 2004 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 28–29, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Hickman Research (D) | March 14–18, 2004 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 33% | 48% | 19% |
| Hickman Research (D) | Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 33% | 48% | 19% |
| DSCC (D) (p. 2) | May 2003 | ± % | 33% | 45% | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[10] |
Margin of error |
David Beasley (R) |
Inez Tenenbaum (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hickman Research (D) | March 14–18, 2004 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) (p. 2) | February 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 32% | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[10] |
Margin of error |
Charlie Condon (R) |
Inez Tenenbaum (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hickman Research (D) | March 14–18, 2004 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Hickman Research (D) | Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 36% | 48% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[10] |
Margin of error |
Thomas Ravenel (R) |
Inez Tenenbaum (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hickman Research (D) | Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 29% | 49% | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[10] |
Margin of error |
Jim DeMint (R) |
Fritz Hollings (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSCC (D) (p. 2) | May 2003 | ± % | 38% | 43% | 19% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim DeMint• | 857,167 | 53.67% | +8.00% | |
| Democratic | Inez Tenenbaum | 704,384 | 44.10% | −8.60% | |
| Constitution | Patrick Tyndall | 13,464 | 0.84% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Rebekah E. Sutherland | 10,678 | 0.67% | −0.92% | |
| United Citizens Party | Tee Ferguson | 5,859 | 0.37% | N/A | |
| Green | Efia Nwangaza* | 4,245 | 0.27% | N/A | |
| No party | Write-Ins | 1,286 | 0.08% | N/A | |
| Majority | 152,783 | 9.57% | +2.54% | ||
| Turnout | 1,597,221 | 69.0% | +16.2% | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
| *Nwangaza ran under the Independence Party in Aiken and Calhoun counties; her totals are combined. | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Abbeville (Largest city: Abbeville)
- Georgetown (Largest city: Murrells Inlet)
- Lancaster (Largest city: Lancaster)
- Union (Largest city: Union)
- Barnwell (Largest city: Barnwell)
- Berkeley (Largest city: Goose Creek)
- Cherokee (Largest city: Gaffney)
- Dorchester (Largest city: North Charleston)
- Edgefield (Largest city: Edgefield)
- Florence (Largest city: Florence)
- Greenwood (Largest city: Greenwood)
- Kershaw (Largest city: Cmaden)
- Laurens (Largest city: Laurens)
- Newberry (Largest city: Newberry)
- Saluda (Largest city: Saluda)
- "Hollings Retirement Could Hurt Democrats". wfmynews2.com. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
- "Columbia Mayor Bob Coble drops out of Senate race". WISTV. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
- "Coalition of The Willing?". Roll Call. June 6, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
- "Corzine Looks For Millionaires". Roll Call. May 2, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
- "Democrats Brace for Possible Hollings Exit". Roll Call. May 20, 2003. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
- "Who Will Replace Hollings?". wltx.com. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
- http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/2004congresults.pdf OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS FOR UNITED STATES SENATE (2004). www.fec.gov. p. 72. Retrieved October 24, 2013.
- "MCBRIDE ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL". January 7, 2003.. fee required.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
- Harrell, Peter E. (October 14, 2004). "SOUTH CAROLINA: Debate Poses Question of Who Has Momentum". The New York Times. Retrieved February 1, 2008.
- Graham, Michael (November 1, 2004). "The Revolutionary". National Review Online. Retrieved February 1, 2008.