United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Carolina,_2016

2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina

2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina

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The 2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county.

Trump won the state with 49.83% of the vote, a small decrease from Mitt Romney's vote percentage in 2012. However, he won by a margin of 3.66%, an increase of 1.62% compared to Romney's margin in 2012. In contrast, Clinton obtained 46.17% of the vote, a decrease of over 2% in 2012 when Obama won 48.35% of the vote. Although both candidates saw decreases in vote share compared to 2012, Trump and Clinton both obtained more votes than the previous election's candidates due to a higher voter turnout in this election. Trump flipped seven counties to the Republican column and was the first Republican to win Robeson, Richmond, and Gates counties since Richard Nixon in 1972. Clinton flipped just one county to the Democratic column, Watauga County, home to Boone.

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Watauga County since James A. Garfield in 1880, as well as the first to do so without carrying Bumcombe or Forsyth counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924, the first to do so without carrying Wake County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, and the first to do so without carrying Pitt or Wilson counties since Richard Nixon in 1968. It was also the first time since 1980 that North Carolina voted more Democratic than Ohio.

Primary elections

The Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries were on March 15, 2016. In North Carolina, registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

County results of the North Carolina Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3][4]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Hillary] Clinton holds a commanding lead of 57% to 34% among likely Democratic voters over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont."[5]

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary

Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Ted Cruz
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[3][4][7]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Donald] Trump tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 41% to 27% among likely GOP voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trail far behind, at 14% and 11%, respectively."[5]

Results

More information Candidate, Votes ...

Trump managed to pull off a closer than expected win due to both Cruz and his campaigns performances in different metropolitan areas. Trump was strongest in the Charlotte, Fayetteville and Wilmington areas. Cruz did best in Greensboro, Asheville and the Research Triangle region, where North Carolina's major colleges and capital of Raleigh are located.[8]

Libertarian primary

Quick Facts Candidate, Home state ...

Eleven candidates appeared on the Libertarian presidential primary ballot:[3][4]

  • John David Hale
  • Cecil Ince
  • Gary Johnson
  • Steve Kerbel
  • Darryl W. Perry
  • Austin Petersen
  • Derrick Michael Reid
  • Jack Robinson Jr.
  • Rhett Smith
  • Joy Waymire
  • Marc Allan Feldman

Results

More information Candidate, Votes ...

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Up until the summer of 2016, both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were each winning polls, with Trump leading slightly. From late June 2016 to mid September 2016, Clinton gained momentum and had won most polls conducted in the summer. From mid September 2016 to late October, Clinton's momentum increased as she won every poll but one. The latest polls showed a near tie, with both almost evenly matched. The average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton ahead 46% to 45%.[17] Interestingly, while she had a head-to-head lead in the last polls against Trump, polls with Gary Johnson showed the race a lot closer. The last New York Times poll conducted showed Trump and Clinton tied with 44% for each.[17]

Candidates

In addition to Clinton, Johnson and Trump, Green Party nominee Jill Stein was granted write-in status by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the only write-in candidate to qualify.[18][19]

Results

State senate district results:
More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

More information County, Donald Trump Republican ...

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 10 of North Carolina's 13 congressional districts.

More information District, Trump ...

Analysis

Prior to the 2016 election, North Carolina had been a Republican stronghold since 1968 with the state voting Democratic only once between then and 2008. In 2008, North Carolina voted Democratic for only the second time in 40 years. Although the state returned to the Republican column in 2012, when the party's nominee, Mitt Romney, carried the state, it did so only narrowly, cementing its new status as a battleground state. Throughout the 2016 campaign, North Carolina was considered by most a tossup state, with the outcome going into election night heavily debated. The Trump campaign saw winning North Carolina as crucial in order for Trump to win the Electoral College; conversely, the Clinton campaign felt that it was vital for them to win the state to block Trump's path to an Electoral College win. Both Trump and Clinton campaigned in the state shortly before the general election.[21][22]

Despite winning the state, Trump, in some ways, under-performed in comparison to Romney in 2012. Romney won a majority of the vote in 2012 with 50.4% while Trump only managed a plurality of 49.8%. Similarly, Clinton also under-performed in comparison to Obama, with Clinton winning only 46.2% in comparison to Obama's 48.35%. This situation was the result of the spike in votes for third party candidates in the state as 4% of North Carolinians voted for a candidate other than the Democratic and Republican nominees in 2016 as opposed to just 1.26% in 2012.

An increase in turnout in North Carolina allowed both Trump and Clinton to out-perform Romney and Obama in terms of the total votes each candidate received. In 2016 Trump won around 92,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 while Clinton won around 10,000 more than Obama. Furthermore, Trump also outperformed Romney by winning North Carolina by a greater margin than Romney was able to as Trump won the state over Clinton by 3.7% compared to the 2% margin Romney won over Obama. Trump's win in North Carolina marked the 9th time the state has voted Republican in the last 10 elections and, therefore, the state continues to lean more Republican at the presidential level.

See also


References

  1. "Voter turnout in United States elections".
  2. Binker, Mark (January 5, 2016). "NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots". WRAL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  3. Burns, Matthew (March 8, 2016). "WRAL News poll: Trump, Clinton poised to win NC". WRAL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  4. "NC SBE Election Contest Details". Er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  5. "NC SBE Election Contest Details". Er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  6. "Live results from the North Carolina primary". graphics.latimes.com. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  7. "NC SBE Contest Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Government of North Carolina. March 16, 2015. Retrieved March 16, 2016.
  8. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  9. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved April 17, 2019.
  10. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  11. "11/08/2016 OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  12. Bradner, Eric (November 3, 2016). "Why North Carolina is so important in 2016". CNN. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  13. Catanese, David (November 4, 2016). "Clinton's North Carolina Firewall". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved February 10, 2019.

Further reading


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