United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018

2018 United States Senate election in Texas

2018 United States Senate election in Texas

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For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.

The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz won re-election to a second term defeating Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke. The primary for all parties was held on March 6, 2018, making it the first primary of the 2018 season.[2] As Cruz and O'Rourke both won majorities in their primaries, they did not participate in the May 22 runoff primary that was held for some nominations in Texas.[3]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was reelected as lieutenant governor in 1994, with election forecasters declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of the 2018 cycle.[4] However, O'Rourke gradually closed the gap,[5] and leading up to the election, the race was considered unexpectedly competitive.[6]

On Election Day, Cruz defeated O'Rourke[7] by a margin just short of 215,000 votes, or 2.6 percent; the race was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978.[8]

Background

Main article: Politics of Texas

In 2012, after a stunning upset victory in the Republican primary, then-Solicitor General of Texas Ted Cruz defeated former member of the Texas House of Representatives Paul Sadler by a 16-point margin (56%–40%). Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. As conservatives began turning to the Republican Party in once strongly Democratic areas, Democratic voters in the state were largely based in the majority-Hispanic communities in Southern Texas and in populous metropolitan cities, such as Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, as well as the heavily Hispanic city of El Paso on the state's western tip, which O'Rourke represented in the U.S. House.

Since 1990, Texas has voted for Republican statewide candidates in all elections, whether it be presidential, gubernatorial, or senatorial, often by large margins. In 1998, Governor George W. Bush won re-election by 37 points over his Democratic challenger, Garry Mauro. In 2000, Governor Bush won Texas by 21 points over Vice President Al Gore. In 2004, President Bush won Texas over Senator John Kerry by 23 points, winning rural areas by landslide margins, capturing urban zones, and coming very close to winning the Latino vote (49% to Kerry's 50%). Democrat Barack Obama was defeated by margins of 12 points in 2008, against John McCain, and 16 points in 2012, against Mitt Romney, respectively. However, in 2016, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by only a 9-point margin, demonstrating a possible shift away from the Safe Republican status it had held for over a decade. This has led Democrats to begin targeting Texas as a potential future swing state. It should also be noted that Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in the Texas Republican primary for U.S. President in 2016.

As of June 2018, Senator Cruz held a 49%–44% approval rating among Texans in a state Donald Trump won by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Among groups that tend to affiliate themselves more with the Democratic Party, Senator Cruz held a 29% approval rating among Hispanics, 37% among women, and 42% among college-educated voters.[9]

Republican primary

Quick Facts Candidate, Popular vote ...

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

  • Thomas Dillingham, businessman[16]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Bruce Jacobson
Individuals
Stefano de Stefano
Media

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Beto O'Rourke
Newspapers
Organizations
Sema Hernandez
Individuals

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

County results of the Democratic primary for Class 1 United States Senate in Texas, 2018
  O'Rourke
  •   O'Rourke—>90%
  •   O'Rourke—80–90%
  •   O'Rourke—70–80%
  •   O'Rourke—60–70%
  •   O'Rourke—50–60%
  •   O'Rourke—40–50%
  •   O'Rourke—<40%
  •   Kimbrough / O'Rourke—50%
  O'Rourke/Hernandez tie
  •   O'Rourke/Hernandez tie—<50%
  O'Rourke/Kimbrough tie
  •   O'Rourke/Kimbrough tie—50%
  Hernandez
  •   Hernandez—>90%
  •   Hernandez—80–90%
  •   Hernandez—70–80%
  •   Hernandez—60–70%
  •   Hernandez—50–60%
  •   Hernandez—40–50%
  •   Hernandez—<40%
  Kimbrough
  •   Kimbrough—<40%
  •   Kimbrough—40–50%
  •   Kimbrough—50–60%
  •   Kimbrough—60–70%
  •   Kimbrough—70–80%
  •   Kimbrough—80–90%
  •   Kimbrough—>90%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Notes

  1. American Citizen Party does not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent".[53]

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

Endorsements

Ted Cruz (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
Texas state senators
Texas state representatives
Local officeholders
Individuals
Labor unions
  • San Antonio Police Officers Association[87]
Organizations
Beto O'Rourke (D)
Former U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Texas state senators
  • Wendy Davis, former state senator (D-10th district) and 2014 Democratic nominee for Governor of Texas[113]
Texas state representatives
  • Chris Turner, state representative (101st district) and Chair of the Texas House Democratic Caucus[114]
Local officeholders
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

In the third quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised $38.1 million. This amount was the largest quarterly total raised by a U.S. Senate candidate[197] until Jaime Harrison raised $57 million in the third quarter of 2020 in the South Carolina election.[198] Cruz and O'Rourke combined to raise a record-setting total of $126 million during the 2018 campaign.[199][200]

More information Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2018, Candidate (party) ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Results

On November 6, 2018, Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke. However, O'Rourke gave Democrats their best performance in a Texas statewide election since Ann Richards was elected governor in 1990.[202] In addition, O'Rourke flipped won that Donald Trump carried in 2016, including Williamson (includes Round Rock and Georgetown), historically conservative Tarrant (includes Fort Worth and suburbs within the DFW metroplex), Jefferson (includes Beaumont and Port Arthur), Nueces (includes Corpus Christi), sparsely populated Brewster (includes Big Bend National Park), and Hays (includes San Marcos). Cruz only won one county that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, sparsely populated Kenedy (coastal region south of Corpus Christi).

More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

Legend
Counties won by Cruz
Counties won by O'Rourke
More information County, Cruz Republican ...
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Cruz won 20 of 36 congressional districts; O'Rourke won the other 16, including three held by Republicans.[204]

More information District, Cruz ...

Notes

  1. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  2. Not yet released

References

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    @WendyDavis (August 26, 2018). ".⁦@BetoORourke⁩ is as authentic as it gets. Every day he's speaking to what true TX values embody-that every voice matters & that everyone merits opportunity. You've seen that viral video. Now read this excellent article. Bye-bye ⁦@tedcruz⁩" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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