The 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent senator Roy Blunt, a Republican, did not seek a third term in office. Republican Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt won the open seat, defeating Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine.

Quick Facts Nominee, Party ...

2022 United States Senate election in Missouri

← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →

Nominee Eric Schmitt Trudy Busch Valentine Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,146,966 872,694 Percentage 55.43% 42.18%

County results Congressional district results Schmitt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Busch Valentine:      50–60%      60–70%      70-80%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election Roy Blunt Republican Elected U.S. Senator Eric Schmitt Republican

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In March 2021, incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt announced that he would not seek reelection in 2022.^[1]

Republican candidates for Blunt's Senate seat included former Gov. Eric Greitens,^[2] U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler,^[3] U.S. Rep. Billy Long,^[4] and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt.^[5]

Schmitt's candidacy was backed by Missouri mega-donor Rex Sinquefield.^[6] In the speech announcing his candidacy, Schmitt tied himself to Donald Trump and spoke against "the radical left".^[6] He pledged to vote against Mitch McConnell for the Senate Republican party leadership position.^[7]

In February 2022, Hartzler's campaign released a 30-second ad criticizing Lia Thomas, a transgender swimmer on the University of Pennsylvania women's team. In the ad, Hartzler said, "Women's sports are for women, not men pretending to be women", adding that, as Missouri's senator, she would not "look away while woke liberals destroy women's sports."^[8]

U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley endorsed Hartzler in February 2022.^[9] On July 8, 2022, Donald Trump refused to endorse Hartzler, saying, "I don't think she has what it takes to take on the Radical Left Democrats."^[10][9]

Greitens was endorsed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, and Fox News personality Kimberly Guilfoyle, the latter joining his campaign as a national chair.^[11]

Many Republican officials, strategists, and donors maneuvered to stymie Greitens's attempted comeback, believing that the scandal surrounding his resignation as governor, his extramarital affair, and the sexual assault accusation against him would make him a weak general election candidate and lead to the loss of the Senate seat to a Democrat.^[12][13] Notable Republican opponents of Greitens's candidacy included Karl Rove,^[12] Johnny DeStefano,^[13] and Senator Rick Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.^[14] After Greitens's ex-wife filed an affidavit against him in March 2022 accusing him of physical abuse, Senator Josh Hawley (who had endorsed Vicky Hartzler the previous month^[15]) called upon Greitens to drop out.^[16]

Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein funded a pro-Greitens super PAC ("Team PAC"), contributing $2.5 million to it.^[12] Other Republican megadonors, including Rex Sinquefield and August Busch, aligned against Greitens.^[13] A Republican-funded anti-Greitens super PAC ("Show Me Values PAC") was created in June 2022^[17] and ran $6.2 million in ads through late July 2022.^[18]

Republican officials, including Rick Scott, waged a campaign to persuade Donald Trump not to endorse Greitens.^[14] On the eve of the primary election, Trump issued a statement endorsing "ERIC" in the primary, leaving it unclear which "Eric" he was endorsing.^[14][19]

In the primary election, Schmitt prevailed with 45.7% of the vote; Hartzler received 22.1%, Greitens 18.9%, and Long 5%.^[20]

Polling

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Eric Greitens	Vicky Hartzler	Billy Long	Mark McCloskey	Dave Schatz	Eric Schmitt	Other [lower-alpha 1]	Margin
Real Clear Politics	July 21 – 24, 2022	July 26, 2022	19.0%	24.5%	7.0%	5.0%	2.5%	33.0%	9.0%	Schmitt +8.5

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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Eric Greitens	Vicky Hartzler	Billy Long	Mark McCloskey	Dave Schatz	Eric Schmitt	Other	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)	July 31 – August 1, 2022	1,078 (LV)	± 2.9%	21%	18%	5%	5%	3%	34%	–	15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	July 27–28, 2022	818 (LV)	± 3.4%	18%	22%	6%	5%	5%	34%	2%	8%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 2]	July 27, 2022	891 (LV)	± 3.3%	17%	16%	–	–	–	28%	–	–
SurveyUSA	July 24–27, 2022	787 (LV)	± 4.2%	20%	13%	8%	4%	3%	28%	4%	21%
Emerson College	July 21–23, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	16%	21%	5%	4%	2%	33%	1%[lower-alpha 3]	17%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	July 23–24, 2022	802 (LV)	± 3.4%	18%	25%	8%	4%	3%	32%	–	10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	July 22–24, 2022	1,059 (LV)	± 2.9%	20%	24%	7%	5%	2%	27%	–	16%
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3]	July 5–7, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	16%	24%	6%	4%	4%	28%	–	18%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	June 28–30, 2022	1,072 (LV)	± 2.9%	24%	24%	6%	3%	4%	23%	–	17%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	June 22–23, 2022	911 (LV)	± 3.1%	20%	19%	8%	5%	2%	25%	–	21%
Emerson College	June 2–5, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	26%	16%	8%	4%	0%	20%	1%[lower-alpha 4]	27%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	May 16–18, 2022	1,065 (LV)	± 2.9%	26%	23%	9%	3%	3%	19%	–	17%
SurveyUSA	May 11–15, 2022	642 (LV)	± 5.0%	26%	11%	7%	2%	2%	17%	7%[lower-alpha 5]	28%
Remington Research (R)[upper-alpha 4]	May 11–12, 2022	945 (LV)	± 3.0%	21%	23%	–	–	–	29%	10%	17%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 5]	May 2–4, 2022	806 (LV)	± 3.5%	26%	19%	7%	5%	2%	14%	–	27%
NMB Research (R)[upper-alpha 6]	April 6–7, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	23%	20%	7%	3%	2%	25%	20%	–
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 7]	April 4–6, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	22%	23%	11%	5%	2%	16%	–	21%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	March 24–29, 2022	1,079 (LV)	± 3.0%	24%	25%	8%	2%	3%	22%	–	16%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	March 22–23, 2022	941 (LV)	± 3.1%	21%	19%	9%	5%	3%	24%	–	19%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	February 22–24, 2022	1,026 (LV)	± 3.0%	31%	17%	6%	5%	2%	23%	3%	15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	February 16–17, 2022	917 (LV)	± 3.1%	25%	18%	8%	5%	2%	22%	–	20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	January 26–27, 2022	902 (LV)	± 3.1%	28%	19%	7%	5%	1%	23%	–	17%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 7]	January 2022	– (LV)	–	30%	16%	9%	6%	1%	16%	–	23%
CMA Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 8]	January 2022	400 (LV)	± 5.0%	27%	12%	6%	4%	1%	15%	–	36%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	December 1–2, 2021	744 (LV)	± 3.4%	27%	16%	7%	4%	3%	24%	–	19%
NMB Research (R)[upper-alpha 6]	December 2021	– (LV)	–	34%	–	–	–	–	17%	49%	–
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	October 20–21, 2021	806 (LV)	± 3.2%	27%	19%	8%	4%	–	25%	–	17%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 5]	October 3–5, 2021	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	36%	10%	6%	4%	–	17%	1%[lower-alpha 6]	25%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	September 8–9, 2021	847 (LV)	± 3.2%	27%	17%	8%	5%	–	28%	–	15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	August 4–5, 2021	911 (LV)	± 3.0%	27%	13%	12%	9%	–	24%	–	15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	June 9–10, 2021	1,011 (LV)	± 3.0%	34%	14%	–	7%	–	25%	–	20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	March 24–25, 2021	1,041 (LV)	± 3.0%	36%	–	14%	–	–	30%	–	20%
				40%	–	–	–	–	39%	–	21%

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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Roy Blunt	John Brunner	Eric Greitens	Vicky Hartzler	Billy Long	Eric Schmitt	Jason Smith	Ann Wagner	Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	March 24–25, 2021	1,041 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	2%	31%	8%	6%	18%	9%	12%	14%
				–	10%	38%	–	–	30%	–	–	22%
				–	–	36%	–	–	29%	16%	–	19%
				–	–	38%	–	–	26%	–	18%	18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 5]	March 23–25, 2021	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	–	–	48%	–	–	11%	7%	9%	26%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1]	December 2–3, 2020	840 (LV)	± 3.4%	43%	–	32%	–	–	–	–	–	25%

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Hypothetical polling

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Eric Schmitt	299,282	45.6
	Republican	Vicky Hartzler	144,903	22.1
	Republican	Eric Greitens	124,155	18.9
	Republican	Billy Long	32,603	5.0
	Republican	Mark McCloskey	19,540	3.0
	Republican	Dave Schatz	7,509	1.1
	Republican	Patrick A. Lewis	6,085	0.9
	Republican	Curtis D. Vaughn	3,451	0.5
	Republican	Eric McElroy	2,805	0.4
	Republican	Robert Allen	2,111	0.3
	Republican	C. W. Gardner	2,044	0.3
	Republican	Dave Sims	1,949	0.3
	Republican	Bernie Mowinski	1,602	0.2
	Republican	Deshon Porter	1,574	0.2
	Republican	Darrell Leon McClanahan III	1,139	0.2
	Republican	Rickey Joiner	1,084	0.2
	Republican	Robert Olson	1,081	0.2
	Republican	Dennis Lee Chilton	755	0.1
	Republican	Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr.	685	0.1
	Republican	Kevin C. Schepers	681	0.1
	Republican	Hartford Tunnell	637	0.1
Total votes			655,675	100.0

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As the Democratic primary season progressed, three main contenders emerged: Lucas Kunce, director of national security at the American Economic Liberties Project; Spencer Toder, a businessman; and Trudy Busch Valentine, heiress of the Anheuser-Busch brewing company.^[81] Kunce and Toder both campaigned as anti-establishment populists, whereas Valentine campaigned in a staid manner with few public appearances.^[81]

Polling

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Lucas Kunce	Spencer Toder	Trudy Busch Valentine	Carla "Coffee" Wright	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA	July 24–27, 2022	547 (LV)	± 5.6%	14%	3%	40%	6%	9%[lower-alpha 7]	28%
Emerson College	July 21–23, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	35%	3%	39%	1%	1%[lower-alpha 8]	22%
Triton Polling & Research (D)[upper-alpha 9]	May 2022	~544 (LV)	± 4.2%	19%	24%	26%	–	–	31%
SurveyUSA	May 11–15, 2022	500 (LV)	± 5.0%	10%	3%	8%	3%	12%[lower-alpha 9]	63%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 10]	April 13–14, 2022	546 (LV)	± 4.2%	25%	–	18%	–	–	56%

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• 2022 United States Senate elections
• 2022 Missouri elections

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