Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election,_by_constituency

Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election by constituency

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Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2015 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in May 2011, and have increased in frequency leading up to the general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

A total of 204 polls in 107 ridings across 9 provinces and 1 territory were conducted.

Constituency polls

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[2] [2]
American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived 2014-11-30 at the Wayback Machine, retrieved October 17, 2012

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Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	October 13, 2015	HTML	38	19	39	6	0	±3.72 pp	688	IVR
Environics	September 20, 2015	HTML	47	11	39	3	0	±4.3 pp	531	IVR
Environics	August 18, 2015	PDF	44	17	32	7	0	±4.3 pp	517	IVR
2012 By-election	November 26, 2012	HTML	37	4	33	26	1	±0.0 pp	27,732	Election
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	55	15	19	10	0	±0.0 pp	41,452	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	September 14, 2015	HTML	37	19	38	6	0	±3.7 pp	679	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	52	16	18	14	0	±0.0 pp	50,770	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
ThinkHQ	October 15, 2015	PDF	36	24	33	4	2	±4.3 pp	517	IVR
Mainstreet Research	October 8, 2015	PDF	31	38	27	3	0	±3.7 pp	701	IVR
Forum Research	September 25, 2015	HTML	40	30	27	4	0	±5.0 pp	524	IVR
Environics	September 16, 2015	PDF	39	35	22	5	0	±4.2 pp	547	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	46	26	24	4	1	±0.0 pp	43,093	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Environics	August 16, 2015	PDF	32	48	15	5	0	±4.3 pp	509	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	53	37	7	3	0	±0.0 pp	37,766	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Environics	September 16, 2015	PDF	45	33	18	4	0	±4.3 pp	512	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	55	27	9	3	6	±0.0 pp	34,180	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	October 8, 2015	PDF	39	15	39	7	0	±3.73 pp	684	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	59	25	12	3	1	±0.0 pp	35,454	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Environics	September 16, 2015	PDF	48	19	29	4	0	±3.9 pp	618	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	64	19	13	4	0	±0.0 pp	43,267	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	September 10, 2015	HTML	45	15	35	5	0	±4.4 pp	494	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	73	13	11	4	0	±0.0 pp	25,650	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	October 10, 2015	HTML	38	26	27	9	0	±3.65 pp	716	IVR
Insights West	October 10, 2015	HTML	33	36	21	9	1	±4.9 pp	400	Telephone
Insights West	September 13, 2015	HTML	33	37	21	9	0	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
Insights West	May 11, 2015	PDF	20	46	8	25	1	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	44	35	16	4	1	±0.0 pp	43,290	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Environics	October 11, 2015	PDF	30	36	29	5	0	±4.4 pp	500	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	56	30	5	6	2	±0.0 pp	43,239	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Insights West	October 5, 2015	HTML	28	35	14	19	4	±4.9 pp	400	Telephone
Insights West	May 11, 2015	PDF	28	41	15	10	5	±5.6 pp	302	Telephone
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	43	44	6	7	0	±0.0 pp	47,766	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Environics	September 19, 2015	HTML	37	37	15	11	0	±4.3 pp	529	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	50	39	3	6	1	±0.0 pp	52,801	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Environics	October 11, 2015	PDF	33	37	22	8	±3.6 pp	755	IVR
Mainstreet Research	October 10, 2015	PDF^{[permanent dead link]}	45	26	24	5	±4.1 pp	567	IVR
Oraclepoll Research	October 6, 2015	PDF	38	41	12	9	±5.5 pp	312	Telephone
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	55	26	7	11	±0.0 pp	56,921	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	September 21, 2015	HTML	33	25	37	5	0	±3.83 pp	651	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	50	16	31	3	0	±0.0 pp	40,418	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Environics	October 4, 2015	HTML	32	14	43	12	0	±3.4 pp	839	IVR
Environics	September 19, 2015	PDF	32	20	37	10	0	±4.1 pp	580	IVR
Environics	August 16, 2015	PDF	29	26	34	12	0	±3.5 pp	799	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	47	24	24	4	1	±0.0 pp	38,772	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	October 8, 2015	PDF	36	26	34	4	0	±4.33 pp	510	IVR
Environics	September 20, 2015	HTML	38	25	33	4	0	±3.7 pp	623	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	50	31	16	3	1	±0.0 pp	35,964	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	September 17, 2015	HTML	14	19	43	4	19	±3.74 pp	679	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	37	29	33	1	1	±0.0 pp	35,623	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	October 8, 2015	PDF	40	14	41	5	0	±3.8 pp	653	IVR
Forum Research	October 2, 2015	PDF	39	25	32	4	0	±5.0 pp	456	IVR
Mainstreet Research	January 28, 2014	PDF	40	24	30	6	0	±3.99 pp	598	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	46	23	25	4	1	±0.0 pp	34,796	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	September 29, 2015	HTML	35	24	36	5	0	±3.73pp	684	IVR
Mainstreet Research	January 28, 2014	PDF	23	38	36	3	0	±3.98 pp	600	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	29	38	31	2	1	±0.0 pp	28,625	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Environics	October 11, 2015	PDF	41	16	40	4	0	±3.2 pp	966	IVR
Environics	September 21, 2015	HTML	43	20	29	9	0	±3.1 pp	1,022	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	56	18	16	10	1	±0.0 pp	51,054	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Forum Research	September 11, 2015	PDF	42	11	43	3	1	±3 pp	885	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	42	15	41	3	0	±0.0 pp	49,685	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	October 8, 2015	PDF	48	14	28	9	0	±3.80 pp	659	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	55	23	17	4	1	±0.0 pp	45,387	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	October 8, 2015	PDF	27	16	50	7	0	±3.76 pp	672	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	42	28	25	4	1	±0.0 pp	53,119	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Environics	July 13, 2015	HTML	23	37	36	5	0	±4.0 pp	563	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	34	22	40	4	0	±0.0 pp	56,663	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	October 8, 2015	PDF	33	19	42	6	±3.75 pp	678	IVR
Environics	October 4, 2015	HTML	38	20	37	5	±2.9 pp	1,132	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	45	25	27	3	±0.0 pp	58,342	Election

Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election,_by_constituency

Constituency polls

Alberta

British Columbia

Manitoba

New Brunswick

Newfoundland and Labrador

Nova Scotia

Ontario

Quebec

Saskatchewan

Yukon

See also

Notes

References

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Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Forum Research	October 3, 2015	PDF	40	6	51	2	0	±5.0 pp	439	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	50	17	29	3	1	±0.0 pp	47,183	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Forum Research	May 12, 2014	PDF	42	8	45	3	2	±4.0 pp	530	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	54	16	27	3	0	±0.0 pp	46,840	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	October 8, 2015	HTML Archived 2015-10-17 at the Wayback Machine	36	21	35	8	0	±3.8 pp	652	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	54	21	18	5	2	±0.0 pp	46,401	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Oraclepoll Research	October 7, 2015	HTML	36	23	35	6	±5.6 pp	300	Telephone
Environics	September 20, 2015	HTML	31	30	34	6	±3.9 pp	632	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	40	37	20	2	±0.0 pp	40,390	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Forum Research	October 1, 2015	HTML	17	42	37	5	0	±5.0 pp	461	IVR
Mainstreet Research	September 14, 2015	HTML	13	45	39	3	0	±3.72 pp	671	IVR
Forum Research	August 6, 2015	PDF	10	57	28	4	1	±5.0 pp	345	IVR
Mainstreet Research	June 30, 2015	HTML	14	44	36	6	0	±3.87 pp	606	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	21	50	24	4	1	±0.0 pp	36,969	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Forum Research	September 30, 2015	HTML	20	39	38	3	0	±4.0 pp	604	IVR
Mainstreet Research	September 29, 2015	HTML	15	43	39	3	0	±3.84pp	644	IVR
Forum Research	August 25, 2015	PDF	17	46	32	5	0	±4.0 pp	528	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	20	44	31	5	1	±0.0 pp	46,665	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Mainstreet Research	July 8, 2015	HTML	21	39	37	3	0	±3.97pp	581	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	32	54	11	3	0	±0.0 pp	39,745	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Forum Research	October 4, 2015	PDF	40	17	39	3	2	±5.0 pp	387	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	49	16	33	2	0	±0.0 pp	35,546	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
Segma Research	October 12, 2015	HTML	19.7	33.1	22.3	22.1	2.8
Segma Research	September 19, 2015	HTML Archived 2015-10-11 at the Wayback Machine	17.0	41.2	18.9	17.8	5.1
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	25.6	37.7	5.8	28.9	1.5	0.7	±0.0 pp	43,094	Election

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error^[1]	Sample Size^[2]	Polling Method^[3]
CROP	August 29, 2015	HTML	2	57	15	20	4	2	±5.0 pp	377	Telephone
Mainstreet Research	December 7, 2013	PDF	6	32	26	36	1	0	±3.82 pp	653	IVR
2011 Election	May 2, 2011	HTML	4	46	11	35	3	1	±0.0 pp	51,102	Election