Lost_asteroids

Lost minor planet

Lost minor planet

Asteroids whose orbits are not known accurately enough to find them again


A minor planet is "lost" when today's observers cannot find it, because its location is too uncertain to target observations. This happens if the orbital elements of a minor planet are not known accurately enough, typically because the observation arc for the object is too short, or too few observations were made before the object became unobservable (e.g. too faint due to increasing distance, or too close to the Sun to view at night).

More than 700,000 minor planets have been observed, many of which must be considered lost due to insufficient observational data.[1][2]

By some definitions thousands, if not tens of thousands, of mostly small observed minor planets are lost.[2] Some lost minor planets discovered in decades past cannot be found because the available observational data is insufficient for reliable orbit determination. With limited information astronomers cannot know where to look for the object at future dates.

Lost objects are sometimes recovered when serendipitously re-observed by a later astronomical survey. If the orbital elements of the newly found object are sufficiently close to those of the earlier lost object, the two may be equated. This can be established by calculating backwards the "new" object's orbit (once it is firmly known) and checking past positions against those previously recorded for the lost object. This usually greatly extends the object's arc length, thus fixing the orbit much more precisely. The back-orbit calculations are especially tricky for lost comets because their orbits can be affected by non-gravitational forces, such as emission of jets of gas from the comet nucleus. Many previously lost asteroids (a type of minor planet) were rediscovered in the 1980s and 1990s, but many minor planets are still lost.[3]

Overview

The orbits of kilometre class NEAs are generally well known, though a few have been lost. However, large numbers of smaller NEAs have highly uncertain orbits[4]

This is a small selection of some early lost or notable asteroids with their discovery and rediscovery dates. (A more detailed description for some of these minor planets can be found in the following sections.) The true number of lost asteroids may be over 150,000.[2] There are also about 30,000 unnumbered bodies with a condition code of U=9, indicating the highest possible uncertainty of their orbit determination. Many of these bodies have been observed years if not decades ago and must be considered lost.[5][lower-alpha 1] There are also more than a thousand near-Earth objects (NEOs) with an observation arc of one or two days only.[6]

Quick Facts Designation, Year of ...

20th-century recoveries

The number of asteroids that were only observed once and not re-observed grew throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, but improved telescopes, searches, and detection techniques led to resolution of most of these cases between 1970 and 2000. There are earlier examples also, such as 132 Aethra, which was lost between 1873 and 1922.[7]

1970s

More information Recovered body, Description ...

1980s and 1990s

Leif Kahl Kristensen at the University of Aarhus rediscovered 452 Hamiltonia and 1537 Transylvania, along with numerous other small objects, in 1981.[16] At the time these results were published, only the nine numbered minor planets 330 Adalberta, 473 Nolli, 719 Albert, 724 Hapag, 843 Nicolaia, 878 Mildred, 1009 Sirene, 1026 Ingrid, and 1179 Mally (below) had remained unobserved since their discoveries:[16]

More information Recovered body, Description ...

Other notable recoveries

  • While studying in Chicago in 1928, Zhang Yuzhe discovered an asteroid that was given the provisional designation 1928 UF, and later the number 1125. He named it "China", or "中華" Zhōnghuá. However, this asteroid was not observed beyond its initial appearance and a precise orbit could not be calculated. In 1957, the Purple Mountain Observatory in China discovered a new asteroid, and with Zhang Yuzhe's agreement the new object 1957 UN1 was reassigned the official designation 1125 China in place of the lost 1928 UF. However, in 1986, the newly discovered object 1986 QK1 was confirmed to be a rediscovery of the original 1928 UF, and this object was named 3789 Zhongguo, which is also a name for China.[25]
  • The near-Earth asteroid (29075) 1950 DA was discovered on 23 February 1950 by Carl Wirtanen at Lick Observatory. It was observed for 17 days and then lost, since not enough observations were made to allow its orbit to be plotted. It was then rediscovered on 31 December 2000. The chance it will impact Earth on 16 March 2880 is about 1 in 4,000, or 0.025 percent.[26]
  • 7796 Járacimrman was discovered at the Czech Kleť Observatory on 16 January 1996 by Zdeněk Moravec and was designated 1996 BG. It was observed until April 1996 and then in June and July 1997. It was revealed, by precovery, to be a lost asteroid which had previously been observed twice: at the Brera-Merate Observatory in northern Italy on 12 December 1973 and at the Australian Mount Stromlo Observatory near Canberra, on 8 and 9 July 1990.

21st century

Recently lost minor planets

  • 2007 WD5 is a 50 m (160 ft) Apollo-class NEO and a Mars-crosser discovered on 20 November 2007, by Andrea Boattini of the Catalina Sky Survey.[27] Early observations of 2007 WD5 caused excitement amongst the scientific community when it was estimated as having as high as a 1 in 25 chance of colliding with Mars on 30 January 2008.[28] However, by 9 January 2008 additional observations allowed NASA's Near Earth Object Program (NEOP) to reduce the uncertainty region resulting in only a 1-in-10,000 chance of impact.[29] 2007 WD5 most likely passed Mars at a distance of 6.5 Mars radii. Due to this relatively small distance and the uncertainty level of the prior observations, the gravitational effects of Mars on its trajectory are unknown and, according to Steven Chesley of NASA's JPL-Near Earth Object program, 2007 WD5 is currently considered "lost".[28][30] The best fit trajectory had the asteroid passing within 21,000 km of Mars and only 16,000 km from its moon Deimos.[29][31]
  • 2010 AU118 is a kilometer-sized Amor-class NEO and Mars-crosser discovered on 27 May 2010, by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) spacecraft. The asteroid was only observed 19 times during 13–15 January 2010, and has not since been observed.[32] Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the uncertainty region in the known trajectory, showed a 1 in 770 million chance that the asteroid could have impacted the Earth on 2020 October 20.[33] However, NEODyS lists the nominal 20 October 2020 Earth distance as 3 AU (450,000,000 km; 280,000,000 mi).[34]
  • In 2007, the object 2007 RR9 was found to be the near-Earth asteroid 6344 P–L, lost since 1960. It is a potentially hazardous object and probably a dormant comet, although it was not visibly outgassing at that time.[13]

See also

Notes

  1. Note: this query at JPL's Small-Body Database lists all unnamed asteroids with an orbital uncertainty of 9, which also includes recently discovered bodies. The lost minor planets appear first, since the table is sorted by the body's first observation date.
  2. On 18 March 1892, a body discovered by Max Wolf with the provisional designation 1892 X was originally named 330 Adalberta, but was lost and never recovered. In 1982, it was determined that Wolf erroneously measured two images of stars, not asteroids. Because it was a false positive and the body never existed, the named designation 330 Adalberta was reused for another asteroid, A910 CB, discovered in 1910.

References

  1. "Running Tallies – Minor Planets Discovered". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 19 August 2015.
  2. Lost asteroid. (2009). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved 27 February 2009, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/topic/lost-asteroid
  3. "Orbits for Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs)". IAU Minor Planet Center. International Astronomical Union. Retrieved 25 June 2020.
  4. Gibson, J.; Kristensen, L. K. (22 July 1982). Marsden, B. G (ed.). "(1009) Sirene Gibson". IAU Circular. No. 3714. Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams. Bibcode:1982IAUC.3714....1G.
  5. "Discovery Circumstances: Numbered Minor Planets (1)–(5000)". IAU: Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 5 July 2011.
  6. "MPEC 2003-T74: 1937 UB (HERMES)". Minorplanetcenter.net. Retrieved 23 July 2013.
  7. "1927 LA". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 24 May 2016.
  8. Meyer, Maik (2 March 2022). "Re: Identification of old discoveries". groups.io. Retrieved 30 March 2022.
  9. "Long-Lost, Dangerous Asteroid Is Found Again – ScienceDaily (15 Oct. 2007)". Sciencedaily.com. 15 October 2007. Retrieved 18 August 2015.
  10. Brian G. Marsden (24 October 1974). "International Astronomical Union Circular 2710". Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams. Retrieved 5 July 2011.
  11. Roig; Nesvorny, D.; Ferraz-Mello, S. (2002). "Asteroids in the 2 : 1 resonance with Jupiter: dynamics and size distribution". Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. 335 (2): 417–431. Bibcode:2002MNRAS.335..417R. doi:10.1046/j.1365-8711.2002.05635.x.
  12. Kristensen, L. K.; Gibson, J.; Shao, C.-Y.; Bowell, E.; Marsden, B. G. (April 1981). "(1537) Transylvania and (452) Hamiltonia". IAU Circ. 3595 (3595): 1. Bibcode:1981IAUC.3595....1K. Retrieved 24 May 2016.
  13. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: 330 Adalberta (A910 CB)" (2016-04-17 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 24 May 2016.
  14. Wiley Interscience Recovery of the Long Lost Minor Planet (843) Nicolaia after 65 Years (Astronomisches Rechen-Institut Heidelberg – Mitteilungen Serie B) L. D. Schmadel 1 *, L. Kohoutek 2 * Heidelberg Astronomisches Rechen-Institut
  15. Cowen, Ron (20 May 2000). "Astronomers Rediscover Long-Lost Asteroid". Science News. Vol. 157, no. 21. Archived from the original on 28 December 2012.
  16. "(878) MILDRED". IAU Circular. No. 5275. 25 May 1991.
  17. Brian G. Marsden (8 December 1986). "International Astronomical Union Circular 4281". Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams. Retrieved 5 July 2011.
  18. Brian G. Marsden (5 December 1986). "International Astronomical Union Circular 4278". Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams. Retrieved 5 July 2011.
  19. Schmadel, Lutz D. (2007). "(3789) Zhongguo". Dictionary of Minor Planet Names – (3789) Zhongguo. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. p. 320. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-29925-7_3783. ISBN 978-3-540-00238-3.
  20. "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 29075 1950 DA". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 26 November 2013. Archived from the original on 26 December 2013. Retrieved 23 June 2014.
  21. Don Yeomans, Paul Chodas and Steve Chesley (28 December 2007). "Mars Impact Probability Increases to 4 Percent". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 29 December 2007. Retrieved 28 December 2007.
  22. Steve Chesley, Paul Chodas and Don Yeomans (9 January 2008). "2007 WD5 Mars Collision Effectively Ruled Out – Impact Odds now 1 in 10,000". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 11 January 2008. Retrieved 9 January 2008.
  23. Lakdawalla, Emily (4 February 2008). "WD5 most likely missed Mars, but we may never know". Retrieved 24 February 2008.
  24. "Horizons Archive Mars/Earth 2003/2008". Archived from the original on 13 August 2007. Retrieved 23 December 2007. (Soln.date: 2007-Dec-23)
  25. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2010 AU118)" (last observation: 2010-01-15; arc: 2 days). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 13 December 2012. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
  26. "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2010 AU118". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 3 April 2014. Retrieved 13 May 2020.
  27. "2010AU118 Ephemerides for 20 October 2020". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects  Dynamic Site). Retrieved 13 May 2020.

Share this article:

This article uses material from the Wikipedia article Lost_asteroids, and is written by contributors. Text is available under a CC BY-SA 4.0 International License; additional terms may apply. Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.